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急性肾损伤患者长期慢性透析及死亡的肾脏替代治疗终止的预测因素

Predictive Factors Upon Discontinuation of Renal Replacement Therapy for Long-Term Chronic Dialysis and Death in Acute Kidney Injury Patients.

作者信息

Yang Tingting, Sun Si, Lin Liping, Han Mei, Liu Qiang, Zeng Xiaoxi, Zhao Yuliang, Li Yupei, Su Baihai, Huang Songmin, Yang Lichuan

机构信息

Division of Nephrology, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Sichuan, People's Republic of China.

出版信息

Artif Organs. 2017 Dec;41(12):1127-1134. doi: 10.1111/aor.12927. Epub 2017 May 23.

Abstract

The specific timing for discontinuing renal replacement therapy (RRT) in acute kidney injury (AKI) patients is debatable. The predictive abilities of variables at the time of discontinuation of RRT for the long-term prognoses of patients have not been explored. This study aimed to explore the prognostic factors upon discontinuation of RRT for long-term chronic dialysis and death of patients with acute RRT-requiring AKI, thus improving decision making regarding the discontinuation of RRT and the follow-up of patients thereafter. A cohort of 302 AKI patients who required acute RRT and remained alive and free of dialysis for at least 30 days after discharge from January 2009 to December 2012 were followed up. The predictive abilities of general characteristics, RRT details, and variables upon discontinuation of RRT for long-term chronic dialysis and all-cause death were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models. Kaplan-Meier analysis with a log-rank test was used to compare the survival curves between the strata of levels of good predictors upon discontinuation of RRT. After a median follow-up time of 4.1 years, 20 (6.6%) patients initiated chronic dialysis and 56 (18.5%) patients died. A higher CysC level upon discontinuation of RRT (HR 1.520, 95% CI 1.082-2.135; P = 0.016), comorbid chronic kidney disease, and a higher non-renal Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) were independently predictive for chronic dialysis. The hemoglobin level upon discontinuation of RRT was inversely predictive of death (HR 0.986, 95% CI 0.973-0.999; P = 0.035), and comorbid malignancy, the presence of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome, and a higher non-renal CCI also predicted death. Urine output upon discontinuation of RRT was marginally inversely predictive of death (HR 0.997, 95% CI 0.994-1.000; P = 0.056). Patients who discontinued RRT with CysC levels <2.97 mg/L, hemoglobin levels >85 g/L, and urine output >1130 mL/24 h showed significantly higher non-chronic dialysis and survival rates according to a log-rank test. Our study suggested that upon discontinuation of RRT, higher serum CysC levels had the most promising predictive value for long-term chronic dialysis, and lower hemoglobin levels predicted long-term death; lower urine output also marginally predicted long-term death. Based on the remission of the comprehensive condition, lower CysC levels and higher hemoglobin levels and urine output should be considered in the decision to stop RRT. Patients showing worse levels of these indices upon discontinuation of RRT should undergo stricter follow-up and treatment to improve long-term outcomes.

摘要

急性肾损伤(AKI)患者停止肾脏替代治疗(RRT)的具体时机存在争议。尚未探讨RRT停止时各变量对患者长期预后的预测能力。本研究旨在探讨急性RRT需求性AKI患者停止RRT后长期慢性透析和死亡的预后因素,从而改善关于停止RRT的决策及此后患者的随访。对2009年1月至2012年12月期间需要急性RRT且出院后至少存活30天且未进行透析的302例AKI患者进行了队列随访。使用Cox比例风险模型评估一般特征、RRT详细情况以及RRT停止时各变量对长期慢性透析和全因死亡的预测能力。采用Kaplan-Meier分析和对数秩检验比较RRT停止时良好预测指标水平分层之间的生存曲线。中位随访时间为4.1年,20例(6.6%)患者开始慢性透析,56例(18.5%)患者死亡。RRT停止时较高的胱抑素C(CysC)水平(HR 1.520,95%CI 1.082 - 2.135;P = 0.016)、合并慢性肾脏病以及较高的非肾性查尔森合并症指数(CCI)是慢性透析的独立预测因素。RRT停止时的血红蛋白水平与死亡呈负相关(HR 0.986,95%CI 0.973 - 0.999;P = 0.035),合并恶性肿瘤、存在多器官功能障碍综合征以及较高的非肾性CCI也可预测死亡。RRT停止时的尿量对死亡的预测呈微弱负相关(HR 0.997,95%CI 0.994 - 1.000;P = 0.056)。根据对数秩检验,RRT停止时CysC水平<2.97mg/L、血红蛋白水平>85g/L且尿量>1130mL/24h的患者非慢性透析和生存率显著更高。我们的研究表明,RRT停止时,较高的血清CysC水平对长期慢性透析具有最有前景的预测价值,较低的血红蛋白水平预测长期死亡;较低的尿量也对长期死亡有微弱预测作用。基于综合病情的缓解情况,在决定停止RRT时应考虑较低的CysC水平、较高的血红蛋白水平和尿量。RRT停止时这些指标水平较差的患者应接受更严格的随访和治疗以改善长期结局。

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