Khademipour Gholamreza, Nakhaee Nouzar, Anari Seyed Mohammad Saberi, Sadeghi Maryam, Ebrahimnejad Hojjat, Sheikhbardsiri Hojjat
1Department of Emergency Management Center,Kerman University of Medical Sciences,Kerman,Iran.
2Neuroscience Research Center,Kerman University of Medical Sciences,Kerman,Iran.
Disaster Med Public Health Prep. 2017 Dec;11(6):674-680. doi: 10.1017/dmp.2017.7. Epub 2017 May 30.
In modern societies, crowds and mass gatherings are recurrent. A combination of inadequate facilities and inefficient population management can lead to injury and death. Simulating people's behavior in crowds and mass gatherings can assist in the planning and management of gatherings, especially in emergency situations.
We aimed to determine the crowd pattern and the critical density point in the grand bazaar of Kerman in Iran. We collected data by use of a census method with a questionnaire. To determine the critical density point, height and weight data were placed in the equation $,s,{\equals},\sqrt {{{L{\vskip -1.5pt ,,\asterisk,,}M} \over {3600}}} $ and the outer body surface of all the individuals in the bazaar was calculated. The crowd was simulated by use of flow-based modeling. Flow rate was determined by using the equation (flow rate=density * speed). By use of SketchUp Pro software (version 8; Trimble, Sunnyvale, CA), the movement of each person and the general flow rate were simulated in the three-dimensional environment of Kerman bazaar.
Our findings showed that the population critical density point in Kerman bazaar would be 6112 people. In an accident, the critical density point in Kerman bazaar would be created in about 1 minute 10 seconds after the event.
It seems necessary to identify and provide solutions for reducing the risk of disasters caused by overcrowding in Kerman bazaar. It is suggested that researchers conduct studies to design safe and secure emergency evacuation of Kerman bazaar as well as proper planning for better and faster access of aid squads to this location. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:674-680).
在现代社会中，人群聚集和大规模集会屡见不鲜。设施不足与人口管理低效相结合可能导致伤亡。模拟人群在聚集和大规模集会中的行为有助于集会的规划与管理，尤其是在紧急情况下。
我们旨在确定伊朗克尔曼大巴扎的人群模式和临界密度点。我们通过问卷调查的普查方法收集数据。为确定临界密度点，将身高和体重数据代入公式(s = \sqrt{\frac{L * M}{3600}})，并计算大巴扎内所有人的体表面积。采用基于流的建模方法模拟人群。流速通过公式（流速 = 密度×速度）确定。利用SketchUp Pro软件（8版；Trimble公司，加利福尼亚州森尼韦尔市）在克尔曼大巴扎的三维环境中模拟每个人的行动和总体流速。
我们的研究结果表明，克尔曼大巴扎的人口临界密度点为6112人。在发生事故时，克尔曼大巴扎的临界密度点将在事件发生后约1分10秒时形成。
似乎有必要识别并提供解决方案以降低克尔曼大巴扎过度拥挤导致灾害的风险。建议研究人员开展研究，设计克尔曼大巴扎安全可靠的紧急疏散方案，并做好妥善规划，以便救援队伍能更好更快地抵达该地点。（《灾害医学与公共卫生防范》。2017年；11：674 - 680）
