The State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, The Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an 710061, China.
Interdisciplinary Research Center of Earth Science Frontier (IRCESF) and Joint Center for Global Change Studies (JCGCS), Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
Nat Commun. 2017 May 30;8:15386. doi: 10.1038/ncomms15386.
The far-reaching impacts of central Pacific El Niño events on global climate differ appreciably from those associated with eastern Pacific El Niño events. Central Pacific El Niño events may become more frequent in coming decades as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations rise, but the instrumental record of central Pacific sea-surface temperatures is too short to detect potential trends. Here we present an annually resolved reconstruction of NIÑO4 sea-surface temperature, located in the central equatorial Pacific, based on oxygen isotopic time series from Taiwan tree cellulose that span from 1190 AD to 2007 AD. Our reconstruction indicates that relatively warm Niño4 sea-surface temperature values over the late twentieth century are accompanied by higher levels of interannual variability than observed in other intervals of the 818-year-long reconstruction. Our results imply that anthropogenic greenhouse forcing may be driving an increase in central Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability and/or its hydrological impacts, consistent with recent modelling studies.
中太平洋厄尔尼诺事件对全球气候的深远影响与东太平洋厄尔尼诺事件明显不同。随着大气温室气体浓度的上升，未来几十年中太平洋厄尔尼诺事件可能会更加频繁，但中太平洋海表温度的仪器记录太短，无法检测到潜在的趋势。在这里，我们根据台湾树木纤维素的氧同位素时间序列，提供了一个基于年度分辨率的位于中赤道太平洋的 NIÑO4 海表温度重建，该序列的时间跨度为公元 1190 年至 2007 年。我们的重建表明，与重建的 818 年中其他时期相比，二十世纪后期相对温暖的 Niño4 海表温度值伴随着更高的年际变率水平。我们的结果表明，人为温室气体强迫可能正在推动中太平洋厄尔尼诺-南方涛动变率及其水文影响的增加，这与最近的模型研究一致。
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