MEASURING NATURAL SELECTION ON PHENOTYPIC PLASTICITY.

To understand natural selection we need to integrate its measure across environments. We present a method for measuring phenotypic selection that combines the potential for both environmental variation and phenotypic plasticity. The method uses path analysis and a measure of selection that is analogous to selection on breeding values. For individuals growing in alternative environments, paths are created that represent potential changes in the environment. The probabilities for these changes are then multiplied by the path coefficients to calculate selection coefficients. Selection on plasticity is measured as the difference in selection within each environment. We illustrate these methods using data on selection in an experimental population of Arabidopsis thaliana. Individuals from 36 families were grown in one of four environments, a factorial combination of shaded/open and early/late shading. For final height of the inflorescence, there was positive selection in both the open and shaded environments and negative selection on plasticity of height. For bolting time, there was also positive selection in both environments, but no selection on plasticity. We show how to use this information to examine how selection would change with changes in environmental frequencies and their transition probabilities. These methods can be expanded to encompass continuous traits and continuous environments as well as other complexities of natural selection.