Glinianaia Svetlana V, Best Kate E, Lingam Raghu, Rankin Judith
Institute of Health and Society, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.
Dev Med Child Neurol. 2017 Aug;59(8):864-870. doi: 10.1111/dmcn.13475. Epub 2017 Jun 2.
To estimate the number of children living with cerebral palsy (CP) in England and Wales in 2013 by severity, and to extrapolate this figure to 2020.
Data from the North of England Collaborative Cerebral Palsy Survey for births during the period 1991 to 2000 were restricted to individuals aged at or above 3 years to estimate the prevalence of CP and to calculate 15-year survival by severity according to the number of severe impairments and lifestyle assessment score. The number of 3- to 15-year-olds with CP of different severity in England and Wales was estimated in 2013 and 2019 using actual and nationally projected births.
Cumulative survival estimates up to the age of 16 years in children with CP differ significantly by severity, ranging between 97 per cent and 100 per cent for children with non-severe CP, and between 64 per cent and 67 per cent for those with the most severe CP. By the end of 2013, the estimated number of children aged 3 to 15 years living with CP in England and Wales will be about 20 500 rising to approximately 22 100 by 2020, a 7.5 per cent increase.
Owing to an increasing population, the number of children living with CP in England and Wales will increase by 2020. This will have significant implications for health and social care service planning.
估算2013年英格兰和威尔士脑瘫患儿的数量，并按严重程度进行划分，同时将该数字推算至2020年。
来自英格兰北部脑瘫协作调查中1991年至2000年出生人群的数据，仅限于3岁及以上个体，以估算脑瘫患病率，并根据严重损伤数量和生活方式评估分数，按严重程度计算15年生存率。利用实际出生数据和全国预测出生数据，估算了2013年和2019年英格兰和威尔士不同严重程度的3至15岁脑瘫患儿数量。
脑瘫患儿16岁时的累积生存估计因严重程度不同而有显著差异，非严重脑瘫患儿的生存率在97%至100%之间，最严重脑瘫患儿的生存率在64%至67%之间。到2013年底，英格兰和威尔士3至15岁脑瘫患儿的估计数量约为20500人，到2020年将增至约22100人，增长7.5%。
由于人口增长，到2020年英格兰和威尔士脑瘫患儿数量将会增加。这将对健康和社会护理服务规划产生重大影响。
