State Key Laboratory of Environmental Geochemistry, Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 99 Lincheng West Road, Guiyang 550081, Guizhou Province, PR China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, PR China; Puding Karst Ecosystem Observation and Research Station, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Puding 562100, PR China.
State Key Laboratory of Environmental Geochemistry, Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 99 Lincheng West Road, Guiyang 550081, Guizhou Province, PR China; Puding Karst Ecosystem Observation and Research Station, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Puding 562100, PR China.
Sci Total Environ. 2017 Dec 1;601-602:1449-1465. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.05.288. Epub 2017 Jun 8.
The Yinjiang River watershed is a typical karst watershed in Southwest China. The present study explored runoff change and its responses to different driving factors in the Yinjiang River watershed over the period of 1984 to 2015. The methods of cumulative anomaly, continuous wavelet analysis, Mann-Kendall rank correlation trend test, and Hurst exponent were applied to analyze the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff change. The contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff change were quantitatively assessed using the comparative method of the slope changing ratio of cumulative quantity (SCRCQ). The following results were obtained: (1) From 1984 to 2015, runoff and precipitation exhibited no-significant increasing trend, whereas evaporation exhibited significant decreasing trend. (2) In the future, runoff, precipitation, and evaporation will exhibit weak anti-persistent feature with different persistent times. This feature indicated that in their persistent times, runoff and precipitation will continuously decline, whereas evaporation will continuously increase. (3) Runoff and precipitation were well-synchronized with abrupt change features and stage characteristics, and exhibited consistent multi-timescale characteristics that were different from that of evaporation. (4) The contribution of precipitation to runoff change was 50%-60% and was considered high and stable. The contribution of evaporation to runoff change was 10%-90% and was variable with a positive or negative effects. The contribution of human activities to runoff change was 20%-60% and exerted a low positive or negative effect. (5) Climatic factors highly contributed to runoff change. By contrast, the contribution of human activities to runoff change was low. The contribution of climatic factors to runoff change was highly variable because of differences among base periods. In conclusion, this paper provides a basic theoretical understanding of the main factors that contribute to runoff change in a karst watershed.
银江流域是中国西南地区典型的喀斯特流域。本研究旨在探讨 1984 年至 2015 年期间银江流域径流量变化及其对不同驱动因素的响应。采用累积距平法、连续小波分析、Mann-Kendall 秩相关趋势检验和 Hurst 指数等方法，分析气候变化和人类活动对径流量变化的影响。采用累积量斜率变化比（SCRCQ）比较法，定量评估气候变化和人类活动对径流量变化的贡献。结果表明：（1）1984—2015 年，流域径流量和降水量无显著增加趋势，而蒸发量呈显著减少趋势；（2）未来，径流量、降水量和蒸发量将呈现出不同持续时间的弱反持续性特征，这表明在其持续时间内，径流量和降水量将持续减少，而蒸发量将持续增加；（3）径流量和降水量具有明显的突变特征和阶段特征，且多时间尺度特征与蒸发量不一致；（4）降水对径流量变化的贡献在 50%—60%之间，贡献高且稳定；蒸发对径流量变化的贡献在 10%—90%之间，具有正、负效应的变异性；人类活动对径流量变化的贡献在 20%—60%之间，作用为低正或负；（5）气候因素对径流量变化的贡献较大，而人类活动对径流量变化的贡献较小。气候因素对径流量变化的贡献具有很大的变异性，这是由于基期的差异造成的。综上所述，本文为理解喀斯特流域径流量变化的主要因素提供了基本的理论依据。
