Elwes R D, Chesterman P, Reynolds E H
Lancet. 1985 Oct 5;2(8458):752-3. doi: 10.1016/s0140-6736(85)90631-2.
The prognosis for seizure recurrence was assessed in 133 patients who presented at a median of 1 day after a first-ever tonic-clonic seizure. The cumulative probability of recurrence was 20% by 1 month, 28% by 2 months, 32% by 3 months, 46% by 6 months, 62% by 1 year, and 71% by 3 and 4 years. After a first seizure epilepsy is likely to develop in the majority of patients.
对首次强直阵挛发作后中位时间1天就诊的133例患者进行了癫痫复发预后评估。复发的累积概率在1个月时为20%，2个月时为28%，3个月时为32%，6个月时为46%，1年时为62%，3年和4年时为71%。首次发作后，大多数患者可能会发展为癫痫。
