Zhang Xin-Yu, Gao Ying, Li Chang-Ping, Zheng Rong-Xiu, Chen Jie-Li, Zhao Lin, Wang You-Fa, Wang Yao-Gang
Department of Social Medicine and Health Service Management, School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
BMJ Open. 2017 Jun 24;7(6):e015000. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2016-015000.
The two-child policy took effect in China on 1 January 2016, thus officially ending the one-child policy. The resultant growth in the population will create a considerable demand for public services such as paediatric healthcare, even while there are limited paediatric resources. We estimated the relationship between paediatric health resources and services and child mortality to determine the degree of the deficiency of such resources in China. Projecting the quantity of paediatric health resource allocation and service supply through 2030 will help provide data reference for future policy decision making.
Time-series study.
The People's Republic of China.
Paediatric patients whose data were recorded between 2003 and 2012 from the National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People's Republic of China.
Child mortality and paediatric health resources and services data were entered into a cubic polynomial regression model to project paediatric health resources and services to 2030.
Child mortality decreased throughout the past decade. Furthermore, the number of paediatric beds, paediatricians and nurses increased between 2003 and 2012, although the proportions increased rather slowly. Both the number and proportion of paediatric outpatients and inpatients increased rapidly. The observed and model-predicted values matched well (adjusted R=93.8% for paediatric beds; adjusted R=96.6% for paediatric outpatient visits). Overall, the projection indicated that paediatric beds, paediatricians and nurses will reach 460 148, 233 884 and 184 059 by 2030, respectively. Regarding paediatric services, the number of paediatric outpatient visits and inpatients is expected to reach upwards of 449.95 million and 21.83 million by 2030, respectively.
Despite implementation of the two-child policy, resource allocation in paediatrics has many deficiencies. Proper measures should be taken to actively respond to the demand for paediatric health services.
二孩政策于2016年1月1日在中国生效，从而正式结束了独生子女政策。由此带来的人口增长将对儿科医疗保健等公共服务产生巨大需求，即便儿科资源有限。我们估算了儿科卫生资源与服务和儿童死亡率之间的关系，以确定中国此类资源的短缺程度。预测到2030年儿科卫生资源分配和服务供给的数量，将有助于为未来政策决策提供数据参考。
时间序列研究。
中华人民共和国。
2003年至2012年期间，来自中华人民共和国国家卫生和计划生育委员会记录了数据的儿科患者。
将儿童死亡率以及儿科卫生资源与服务数据输入三次多项式回归模型，以预测到2030年的儿科卫生资源与服务情况。
在过去十年中，儿童死亡率有所下降。此外，2003年至2012年期间，儿科病床、儿科医生和护士的数量有所增加，尽管增长比例相当缓慢。儿科门诊和住院患者的数量及比例均迅速增加。观察值与模型预测值匹配良好（儿科病床调整后R=93.8%；儿科门诊就诊调整后R=96.6%）。总体而言，预测表明到2030年，儿科病床、儿科医生和护士数量将分别达到460148张、233884名和184059名。关于儿科服务，预计到2030年，儿科门诊就诊人数和住院患者人数将分别达到4.4995亿人次和218.3万人次以上。
尽管实施了二孩政策，但儿科资源分配仍存在诸多不足。应采取适当措施积极应对儿科卫生服务需求。
