Sarzaeim Parisa, Bozorg-Haddad Omid, Fallah-Mehdipour Elahe, Loáiciga Hugo A
Department of Irrigation & Reclamation Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture Engineering & Technology, College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Alborz, Iran.
Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, 93106, USA.
Environ Monit Assess. 2017 Jul;189(7):359. doi: 10.1007/s10661-017-6067-3. Epub 2017 Jun 28.
Measures taken to cope with the possible effects of climate change on water resources management are key for the successful adaptation to such change. This work assesses the environmental water demand of the Karkheh river in the reach comprising Karkheh dam to the Hoor-al-Azim wetland, Iran, under climate change during the period 2010-2059. The assessment of the environmental demand applies (1) representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and (2) downscaling methods. The first phase of this work projects temperature and rainfall in the period 2010-2059 under three RCPs and with two downscaling methods. Thus, six climatic scenarios are generated. The results showed that temperature and rainfall average would increase in the range of 1.7-5.2 and 1.9-9.2%, respectively. Subsequently, flows corresponding to the six different climatic scenarios are simulated with the unit hydrographs and component flows from rainfall, evaporation, and stream flow data (IHACRES) rainfall-runoff model and are input to the Karkheh reservoir. The simulation results indicated increases of 0.9-7.7% in the average flow under the six simulation scenarios during the period of analysis. The second phase of this paper's methodology determines the monthly minimum environmental water demands of the Karkheh river associated with the six simulation scenarios using a hydrological method. The determined environmental demands are compared with historical ones. The results show that the temporal variation of monthly environmental demand would change under climate change conditions. Furthermore, some climatic scenarios project environmental water demand larger than and some of them project less than the baseline one.
为应对气候变化对水资源管理可能产生的影响而采取的措施，是成功适应此类变化的关键。这项工作评估了2010年至2059年气候变化期间，伊朗卡尔黑河从卡尔黑大坝到胡尔-阿齐姆湿地这一河段的环境需水量。环境需水量评估采用了（1）代表性浓度路径（RCPs）和（2）降尺度方法。这项工作的第一阶段，在三种RCPs和两种降尺度方法下，预测了2010年至2059年期间的气温和降雨量。由此产生了六种气候情景。结果表明，气温和降雨量的平均值将分别增加1.7 - 5.2%和1.9 - 9.2%。随后，利用单位线法以及降雨、蒸发和径流数据（IHACRES）降雨径流模型模拟了与六种不同气候情景相对应的流量，并将其输入卡尔黑水库。模拟结果表明，在分析期内的六种模拟情景下，平均流量增加了0.9 - 7.7%。本文方法的第二阶段，使用水文方法确定了与六种模拟情景相关的卡尔黑河每月最低环境需水量。将确定的环境需水量与历史需水量进行了比较。结果表明，在气候变化条件下，每月环境需水量的时间变化将会改变。此外，一些气候情景预测的环境需水量大于基线情景，而另一些则小于基线情景。
