Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William & Mary, P.O. Box 1346, Gloucester Point, Virginia, 23062, USA.
Science Branch, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, P.O. Box 5667, St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador, A1C 5X1, Canada.
Ecol Appl. 2017 Oct;27(7):2116-2127. doi: 10.1002/eap.1595. Epub 2017 Sep 6.
Recent increases in emergent infectious diseases have raised concerns about the sustainability of some marine species. The complexity and expense of studying diseases in marine systems often dictate that conservation and management decisions are made without quantitative data on population-level impacts of disease. Mark-recapture is a powerful, underutilized, tool for calculating impacts of disease on population size and structure, even in the absence of etiological information. We applied logistic regression models to mark-recapture data to obtain estimates of disease-associated mortality rates in three commercially important marine species: snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) in Newfoundland, Canada, that experience sporadic epizootics of bitter crab disease; striped bass (Morone saxatilis) in the Chesapeake Bay, USA, that experience chronic dermal and visceral mycobacteriosis; and American lobster (Homarus americanus) in the Southern New England stock, that experience chronic epizootic shell disease. All three diseases decreased survival of diseased hosts. Survival of diseased adult male crabs was 1% (0.003-0.022, 95% CI) that of uninfected crabs indicating nearly complete mortality of infected crabs in this life stage. Survival of moderately and severely diseased striped bass (which comprised 15% and 11% of the population, respectively) was 84% (70-100%, 95% CI), and 54% (42-68%, 95% CI) that of healthy striped bass. The disease-adjusted yearly natural mortality rate for striped bass was 0.29, nearly double the previously accepted value, which did not include disease. Survival of moderately and severely diseased lobsters was 30% (15-60%, 95% CI) that of healthy lobsters and survival of mildly diseased lobsters was 45% (27-75%, 95% CI) that of healthy lobsters. High disease mortality in ovigerous females may explain the poor recruitment and rapid declines observed in this population. Stock assessments should account for disease-related mortality when resource management options are evaluated.
最近新发传染病的增加引起了人们对一些海洋物种可持续性的关注。由于在海洋系统中研究疾病的复杂性和费用很高，因此在没有关于疾病对种群水平影响的定量数据的情况下，通常会做出保护和管理决策。标记-重捕是一种强大的、未充分利用的工具，即使在没有病因信息的情况下，也可以用来计算疾病对种群数量和结构的影响。我们应用逻辑回归模型对标记-重捕数据进行分析，以估算三种商业上重要的海洋物种中与疾病相关的死亡率：加拿大纽芬兰的雪蟹（Chionoecetes opilio），其会间歇性爆发苦蟹病；美国切萨皮克湾的条纹鲈鱼（Morone saxatilis），其患有慢性皮肤和内脏分枝杆菌病；以及新英格兰南部种群的美洲龙虾（Homarus americanus），其患有慢性爆发性壳病。所有三种疾病都会降低患病宿主的存活率。患病成年雄蟹的存活率为 1%（0.003-0.022，95%CI），低于未感染的雄蟹，表明该生命阶段感染蟹几乎全部死亡。患有中度和重度疾病的条纹鲈鱼（分别占种群的 15%和 11%）的存活率为 84%（70-100%，95%CI）和 54%（42-68%，95%CI），低于健康的条纹鲈鱼。经过疾病调整的条纹鲈鱼年自然死亡率为 0.29，几乎是之前未包括疾病时所接受值的两倍。患有中度和重度疾病的龙虾的存活率为健康龙虾的 30%（15-60%，95%CI），轻度患病龙虾的存活率为健康龙虾的 45%（27-75%，95%CI）。产卵雌虾的高疾病死亡率可能解释了该种群中观察到的繁殖力差和迅速下降的现象。在评估资源管理选项时，种群评估应考虑与疾病相关的死亡率。
