Jolliffe Darrick, Cattell Jack, Raza Annabelle, Minoudis Philip
Centre for Criminology, University of Greenwich, Ringgold Standard Institution, London, SE10 9LS, UK.
Get the Data, London, UK.
Crim Behav Ment Health. 2017 Jul;27(3):238-253. doi: 10.1002/cbm.2041.
The London Pathway Project (LPP) is an innovative whole-systems approach to addressing the needs of offenders who have severe personality disorder, with the goal of reducing their risk of harm. Previous research has evaluated the initial implementation of the LPP.
This paper focused on evaluating the impact of the LPP on a number of criminogenic needs over time and its impact on the risk of reoffending and harm compared with a similar group who did not experience the pathway.
Data for men who had been identified for the LPP were used to explore changes in key criminogenic needs an average of 11 months after commencing on the pathway. In addition, Offender Assessment System data was used to match men who had experienced the LPP for at least 12 months to a comparison group on key demographic and criminal history variables. Changes in validated risk assessment devices and changes in practitioners' perception of risk were examined.
The LPP was associated with desirable within-individual change for most of the criminogenic needs explored. However, strong non-desirable changes in lifestyle and associates were also identified, but this was particularly the case for those sentenced to prison. When compared with a matched group, those identified for the pathway showed a significant reduction on an objective measure of risk of reoffending but were rated as having significantly increased risk of harm on the basis of practitioner's perceptions. There was no evidence that greater progression along the pathway was associated with greater benefits.
This is the first impact evaluation of the LPP, and the results were generally positive in terms of its relation to criminogenic needs and risks. Much more research that clearly links project inputs to actual behavioural outcomes, such as later reoffending, is needed.
This initial evaluation of the impact of the LPP could be used as baseline data to examine the impact of the pathway over time, and with greater precision (e.g. matching on personality features). Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
伦敦路径项目（LPP）是一种创新的全系统方法，旨在满足患有严重人格障碍的罪犯的需求，目标是降低他们造成伤害的风险。先前的研究已经评估了LPP的初步实施情况。
本文重点评估LPP随着时间推移对一系列犯罪成因需求的影响，以及与未经历该路径的类似群体相比，其对再次犯罪和造成伤害风险的影响。
使用已被确定参与LPP的男性的数据，探讨他们在开始该路径平均11个月后关键犯罪成因需求的变化。此外，利用罪犯评估系统的数据，将至少经历LPP 12个月的男性与一个在关键人口统计学和犯罪历史变量方面的对照组进行匹配。研究了经过验证的风险评估工具的变化以及从业者对风险认知的变化。
对于所探讨的大多数犯罪成因需求，LPP与个体内部的理想变化相关。然而，也发现了生活方式和社交关系方面强烈的不良变化，尤其是那些被判处监禁的人。与匹配组相比，被确定参与该路径的人在再次犯罪风险的客观衡量指标上显著降低，但根据从业者的认知，他们被评定为造成伤害的风险显著增加。没有证据表明沿着该路径取得更大进展会带来更大益处。
这是对LPP的首次影响评估，就其与犯罪成因需求和风险的关系而言，结果总体上是积极的。需要更多将项目投入与实际行为结果（如后来的再次犯罪）明确联系起来的研究。
对LPP影响的这一初步评估可作为基线数据，用于随着时间推移更精确地研究该路径的影响（例如根据人格特征进行匹配）。版权所有© 2017约翰·威利父子有限公司。
