Air Resources Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park, MD, USA.
Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA.
Sci Rep. 2017 Jul 5;7(1):4710. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-05092-8.
Recent changes of surface particulate matter (PM) concentration in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), South Korea, are puzzling. The long-term trend of surface PM concentration in the SMA declined in the 2000s, but since 2012 its concentrations have tended to incline, which is coincident with frequent severe hazes in South Korea. This increase puts the Korean government's emission reduction efforts in jeopardy. This study reports that interannual variation of surface PM concentration in South Korea is closely linked with the interannual variations of wind speed. A 12-year (2004-2015) regional air quality simulation was conducted over East Asia (27-km) and over South Korea (9-km) to assess the impact of meteorology under constant anthropogenic emissions. Simulated PM concentrations show a strong negative correlation (i.e. R = -0.86) with regional wind speed, implying that reduced regional ventilation is likely associated with more stagnant conditions that cause severe pollutant episodes in South Korea. We conclude that the current PM concentration trend in South Korea is a combination of long-term decline by emission control efforts and short-term fluctuation of regional wind speed interannual variability. When the meteorology-driven variations are removed, PM concentrations in South Korea have declined continuously even after 2012.
韩国首尔都会区（SMA）地表颗粒物（PM）浓度的近期变化令人费解。SMA 地表 PM 浓度的长期趋势在 2000 年代呈下降趋势，但自 2012 年以来，其浓度趋于上升，这与韩国频繁发生的严重雾霾相吻合。这种增加使韩国政府的减排努力面临风险。本研究报告称，韩国地表 PM 浓度的年际变化与风速的年际变化密切相关。进行了为期 12 年（2004-2015 年）的东亚（27 公里）和韩国（9 公里）区域空气质量模拟，以评估在恒定人为排放下的气象影响。模拟的 PM 浓度与区域风速呈强负相关（即 R = -0.86），这表明区域通风减少可能与更停滞的条件有关，这些条件导致韩国发生严重的污染物排放事件。我们得出的结论是，韩国目前的 PM 浓度趋势是排放控制努力的长期下降和区域风速年际变化的短期波动的组合。当去除由气象驱动的变化时，即使在 2012 年之后，韩国的 PM 浓度也在持续下降。
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