Roberts James J, Fausch Kurt D, Schmidt Travis S, Walters David M
Colorado Water Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America.
Fort Collins Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2017 Jul 6;12(7):e0179498. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0179498. eCollection 2017.
Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade-1 increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade-1, and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade-1. Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans.
人为气候变化正在给水生生态系统造成广泛压力，主要是通过热条件变暖。作为对这些变化的响应，湖泊的夏季温度和无冰天数都在增加。我们利用湖泊表面温度和气温的连续记录创建了日平均湖泊表面温度的统计模型，以评估山区湖泊的热变化。这些模型与降尺度气候预测相结合，以预测落基山脉南部27个高海拔湖泊未来的热状况。这些模型预测，到2080年代，湖泊表面年平均温度将以0.25°C·十年⁻¹的速度上升，这高于该地区溪流的变暖速度。最显著的是，预计无冰天数平均将以5.9天·十年⁻¹的速度增加，夏季湖泊表面平均温度预计将以0.47°C·十年⁻¹的速度增加。这两者都可能深刻改变生长季节的长度，并有可能改变山区湖泊生态系统的结构和功能。这些结果突出了山区湖泊预期的变化，并强调了在资源管理计划制定中纳入与气候相关的适应性策略的重要性。
