Brett A S, Phillips M, Beary J F
Lancet. 1986 Mar 8;1(8480):544-7. doi: 10.1016/s0140-6736(86)90895-0.
Expanded use of the polygraph as a detector of lies has been proposed in the United States and the United Kingdom. The positive predictive value of the polygraph (ie, the proportion of positive test results that are true positives) was assessed, on the evidence of the best published data for the sensitivity and specificity of the device. In many screening or investigative situations, the predictive value would be poor; most of the positive results would be false positives. Consequently, truthful persons incriminated as liars by the polygraph would outnumber actual liars with a positive result on the test.
美国和英国已有人提议扩大使用测谎仪来检测谎言。根据已发表的关于该仪器灵敏度和特异性的最佳数据，对测谎仪的阳性预测值（即阳性检测结果中真阳性的比例）进行了评估。在许多筛查或调查情况下，预测价值会很低；大多数阳性结果将是假阳性。因此，被测谎仪判定为说谎者的诚实者数量将超过检测结果呈阳性的实际说谎者数量。
