Wu Zhenkai, Ding Jing, Zhao Dahang, Zhao Li, Li Hai, Liu Jianlin
Department of Pediatric Orthopaedics, Xin-Hua Hospital affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, No. 1665, Kongjiang Road, Shanghai, 200092, China.
Department of Pediatric Orthopaedics, Ying-Hua Medical Group of Bone and Joint Healthcare in Children, No. 358, Haibo Road, Shanghai, 200000, China.
J Orthop Surg Res. 2017 Jul 10;12(1):104. doi: 10.1186/s13018-017-0604-1.
The multiplier method was introduced by Paley to calculate the timing for temporary hemiepiphysiodesis. However, this method has not been verified in terms of clinical outcome measure. We aimed to (1) predict the rate of angular correction per year (ACPY) at the various corresponding ages by means of multiplier method and verify the reliability based on the data from the published studies and (2) screen out risk factors for deviation of prediction.
A comprehensive search was performed in the following electronic databases: Cochrane, PubMed, and EMBASE™. A total of 22 studies met the inclusion criteria. If the actual value of ACPY from the collected date was located out of the range of the predicted value based on the multiplier method, it was considered as the deviation of prediction (DOP). The associations of patient characteristics with DOP were assessed with the use of univariate logistic regression.
Only one article was evaluated as moderate evidence; the remaining articles were evaluated as poor quality. The rate of DOP was 31.82%. In the detailed individual data of included studies, the rate of DOP was 55.44%.
The multiplier method is not reliable in predicting the timing for temporary hemiepiphysiodesis, even though it is prone to be more reliable for the younger patients with idiopathic genu coronal deformity.
佩利引入乘数法来计算临时半骨骺阻滞术的时机。然而，该方法尚未在临床结局指标方面得到验证。我们旨在：（1）通过乘数法预测不同相应年龄的每年角度矫正率（ACPY），并根据已发表研究的数据验证其可靠性；（2）筛选出预测偏差的风险因素。
在以下电子数据库中进行了全面检索：Cochrane、PubMed和EMBASE™。共有22项研究符合纳入标准。如果收集日期的ACPY实际值超出基于乘数法的预测值范围，则将其视为预测偏差（DOP）。使用单因素逻辑回归评估患者特征与DOP的关联。
仅有一篇文章被评估为中等证据；其余文章质量较差。DOP发生率为31.82%。在纳入研究的详细个体数据中，DOP发生率为55.44%。
乘数法在预测临时半骨骺阻滞术的时机方面不可靠，尽管对于患有特发性膝冠状畸形的较年轻患者可能更可靠。
