Complexity and Computational Population Health Group, Texas A&M University, TX, USA.
Department of Health and Kinesiology, Texas A&M University, TX, USA.
Addiction. 2018 Feb;113(2):353-362. doi: 10.1111/add.13955. Epub 2017 Aug 25.
The drinking environment is a complex system consisting of a number of heterogeneous, evolving and interacting components, which exhibit circular causality and emergent properties. These characteristics reduce the efficacy of commonly used research approaches, which typically do not account for the underlying dynamic complexity of alcohol consumption and the interdependent nature of diverse factors influencing misuse over time. We use alcohol misuse among college students in the United States as an example for framing our argument for a complex systems paradigm.
A complex systems paradigm, grounded in socio-ecological and complex systems theories and computational modeling and simulation, is introduced. Theoretical, conceptual, methodological and analytical underpinnings of this paradigm are described in the context of college drinking prevention research.
The proposed complex systems paradigm can transcend limitations of traditional approaches, thereby fostering new directions in alcohol prevention research. By conceptualizing student alcohol misuse as a complex adaptive system, computational modeling and simulation methodologies and analytical techniques can be used. Moreover, use of participatory model-building approaches to generate simulation models can further increase stakeholder buy-in, understanding and policymaking.
A complex systems paradigm for research into alcohol misuse can provide a holistic understanding of the underlying drinking environment and its long-term trajectory, which can elucidate high-leverage preventive interventions.
饮酒环境是一个复杂的系统，由许多异质、不断发展和相互作用的组成部分构成，具有循环因果关系和涌现特性。这些特征降低了常用研究方法的效果，这些方法通常没有考虑到饮酒的潜在动态复杂性，以及随着时间的推移影响滥用的各种因素的相互依存性质。我们以美国大学生的酒精滥用为例，提出了一个复杂系统范式来阐述我们的观点。
引入了一种基于社会生态和复杂系统理论以及计算建模和模拟的复杂系统范式。在大学生饮酒预防研究的背景下，描述了这一范式的理论、概念、方法和分析基础。
所提出的复杂系统范式可以超越传统方法的局限性，从而为酒精预防研究提供新的方向。通过将学生的酒精滥用概念化为一个复杂的自适应系统，可以使用计算建模和模拟方法以及分析技术。此外，使用参与式模型构建方法来生成模拟模型可以进一步增加利益相关者的参与、理解和决策制定。
研究酒精滥用的复杂系统范式可以提供对潜在饮酒环境及其长期轨迹的整体理解，从而阐明具有高影响力的预防干预措施。
