Naïve Simplicity: The Overlooked Piece of the Complexity-Simplicity Paradigm.

Concepts of simplicity and complexity in modeling have been explored in papers, editorials, and talks. The concept is not well understood because there are at least two flavors of simplicity. Modelers envision simplicity (i.e., elegant simplicity) as the sought-after goal in modeling, but naïve simplicity, which is the focus of this paper, is commonly unrecognized and dangerous. The problem is that naïve or simple ideas are often mistaken for settled science and come with the prospect of being more wrong than right. The concept of the so-called simplicity cycle, in relation to classical problems of carbon-14 age and salinity in closed-basin lakes, is used to illustrate these points. The emerging problems of water-mosquitoes-diseases show the value of mapping new problems to the simplicity cycle. Researchers can "know what they do not know" and avoid the dangers of naïve simplicity.