School of Medicine, College of Medicine, China Medical University, Taichung 40402, Taiwan; Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Medicine, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung 40447, Taiwan.
Institute of Population Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan 35053, Taiwan.
Atherosclerosis. 2017 Sep;264:19-28. doi: 10.1016/j.atherosclerosis.2017.07.016. Epub 2017 Jul 14.
We aimed at developing a novel risk prediction model for death from cardiovascular disease (CVD) for Chinese individuals, based upon a large cohort from Taiwan.
This Chinese cohort came from Taiwan, with 381,963 individuals free from CVD, recruited from a private health surveillance program. With a median follow-up of 8.8 years, 1894 CVD deaths out of a total of 10,829 deaths were identified by linking cohort ID with the National Death File.
A novel CVD death risk prediction model for Chinese individuals was established from this cohort. An increase in the resting heart rate was the statistically independent predictor in this model. The discriminatory accuracy was measured by generating the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the area under the ROC curve was 0.913 (95% CI = 0.907 to 0.920).
A novel cardiovascular death prediction model with high predictability for Chinese individuals was demonstrated in the present study.
我们旨在基于来自中国台湾的大型队列，为中国人开发一种用于预测心血管疾病（CVD）死亡风险的新型预测模型。
本中国队列来自台湾，从私人健康监测计划中招募了 381963 名无 CVD 的个体。通过将队列 ID 与国家死亡档案相链接，对总死亡人数为 10829 人进行随访，中位随访时间为 8.8 年，共发现 1894 例 CVD 死亡。
该队列建立了中国人 CVD 死亡风险预测的新型预测模型。在该模型中，静息心率的增加是统计学上独立的预测因素。通过生成接收者操作特征（ROC）曲线来衡量判别准确性，ROC 曲线下面积为 0.913（95%CI=0.907 至 0.920）。
本研究表明，该预测模型具有较高的预测能力，可为中国人提供一种用于预测 CVD 死亡的新型预测模型。
