Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China.
Graduate Institute of Hydrological & Oceanic Sciences, National Central University, 300 Zhongda Road, Jhongli City, Taoyuan County, 320, Taiwan.
Sci Rep. 2017 Aug 7;7(1):7418. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-07572-3.
Each year, a number of typhoons in the western North Pacific pass through the Luzon Strait into South China Sea (SCS). Although the storms remain above a warm open sea, the majority of them weaken due to atmospheric and oceanic environments unfavorable for typhoon intensification in SCS, which therefore serves as a natural buffer that shields the surrounding coasts from potentially more powerful storms. This study examines how this buffer has changed over inter-decadal and longer time scales. We show that the buffer weakens (i.e. greater potential for more powerful typhoons) in negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) years, as well as with sea-level-rise and surface warming, caused primarily by the deepening of the ocean's 26 °C isotherm Z . A new Intensity Change Index is proposed to describe the typhoon intensity change as a function of Z and other environmental variables. In SCS, the new index accounts for as high as 75% of the total variance of typhoon intensity change.
每年，西北太平洋的多个台风穿过吕宋海峡进入南海（SCS）。尽管这些风暴仍在温暖的开阔海域之上，但由于南海不利于台风增强的大气和海洋环境，大多数风暴会减弱，因此南海成为了一个天然缓冲区，可以保护周围海岸免受潜在更强大风暴的影响。本研究考察了这种缓冲区在几十年际和更长时间尺度上的变化情况。我们表明，在太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）负年以及海平面上升和表面变暖的情况下，缓冲区会减弱（即更有可能出现更强的台风），这主要是由海洋 26°C 等温水温深度增加引起的。提出了一个新的强度变化指数来描述台风强度随 Z 和其他环境变量的变化。在南海，新指数解释了高达 75%的台风强度变化的总方差。
