Ma Tian, Yu Wei-Dong, Speich Sabrina, Zhao Hai-Kun, Xin Rui, Luo Hao, Wu Li-Guang
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, 519082, Zhuhai, China.
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory, 519082, Zhuhai, China.
Nat Commun. 2025 Aug 11;16(1):7395. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-62334-4.
In dramatic contrast to the continuous intensification of strong Atlantic hurricanes moving into the Gulf of Mexico, super typhoons (SuperTYs) originating from the Northwest Pacific significantly weaken after entering the South China Sea (SCS). Using an idealized cyclone intensity model, we show that this striking discrepancy results from the SCS's buffering effects, including persistent topographic blocking by the Philippine archipelago and seasonally shifting atmospheric-oceanic constraints. The archipelago accounts for 54% of typhoon weakening throughout the season, while environmental factors explain the remaining ~46% with the significant seasonal dependence on strong SCS monsoon-induced vertical wind shear in summer (30%) and ocean cooling in autumn (~37%). The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 projects that these buffering effects may likely persist through the 21st century. These findings enhance our understanding of the SCS coastal vulnerability to typhoon impacts, with broader implications for climate risk management.
与进入墨西哥湾的大西洋强烈飓风持续增强形成鲜明对比的是，源自西北太平洋的超级台风（SuperTYs）进入南海（SCS）后显著减弱。利用理想化的气旋强度模型，我们表明这种显著差异是由南海的缓冲效应造成的，包括菲律宾群岛持续的地形阻挡以及季节性变化的大气 - 海洋约束。在整个季节中，群岛造成了约54%的台风减弱，而环境因素解释了其余约46%，其中夏季南海强季风引起的垂直风切变（约30%）和秋季海洋降温（约37%）对其有显著的季节性依赖。耦合模式比较计划第6阶段预测，这些缓冲效应可能会持续到21世纪。这些发现增强了我们对南海沿岸台风影响脆弱性的理解，对气候风险管理具有更广泛的意义。
