Nygrén Nina A, Tapio Petri, Horppila Jukka
Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku, FI-20014, Turku, Finland.
Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, P.O.Box 65 (Viikinkaari 1), FI-00014, Helsinki, Finland.
Environ Manage. 2017 Nov;60(5):947-960. doi: 10.1007/s00267-017-0919-z. Epub 2017 Aug 10.
In the age of climate change, the demand and lack of pure water challenges many communities. Substantial amount of effort is put in every year to manage and restore degraded lakes while the long-term effects of those efforts are only poorly known or monitored. Oxygenation, or aeration, is used extensively for the restoration of eutrophic lakes, although many studies question whether this process improves the status of the lakes in the long-term. The desired effect of oxygenation is based on paradigmatic theories that, in the light of recent literature, might not be adequate when long-term improvements are sought. This article canvasses expert views on the feasibility of the 'oxygen-phosphorus paradigm' as well as the future of the management and restoration of eutrophic lakes, based on an international, two-rounded, expert panel survey (Delphi study), employing 200 freshwater experts from 33 nationalities, contacted at three conferences on the topic. The conclusion is that the oxygen-phosphorus paradigm seems to be rather persistent. The experts considered oxygenation to be a valid short-term lake restoration method, but not without harmful side-effects. In addition, experts' low level of trust in the adequacy of the scientific knowledge on the effects of restorations and in the use of the scientific knowledge as a basis of choice of restoration methods, could be signs of a paradigm shift towards an outlook emphasizing more effective catchment management over short-term restorations. The expert panel also anticipated that reducing external nutrient loads from both point and diffuse sources will succeed in the future.
在气候变化的时代，对纯净水的需求以及纯净水的短缺给许多社区带来了挑战。每年都投入大量精力来管理和恢复退化的湖泊，然而这些努力的长期影响却鲜为人知或缺乏监测。增氧，即曝气，被广泛用于富营养化湖泊的恢复，尽管许多研究质疑这一过程从长期来看是否能改善湖泊状况。增氧的预期效果基于一些范式理论，但根据最近的文献，在寻求长期改善时这些理论可能并不充分。本文基于一项国际两轮专家小组调查（德尔菲研究），探讨了“氧 - 磷范式”的可行性以及富营养化湖泊管理和恢复的未来，该调查邀请了来自33个国家的200名淡水专家，这些专家是在关于该主题的三次会议上联系到的。结论是氧 - 磷范式似乎相当顽固。专家们认为增氧是一种有效的短期湖泊恢复方法，但并非没有有害的副作用。此外，专家们对恢复效果的科学知识的充分性以及将科学知识用作恢复方法选择依据的信任度较低，这可能是范式转变的迹象，即转向一种更强调有效流域管理而非短期恢复的观点。专家小组还预计，未来减少来自点源和非点源的外部营养负荷将会成功。
