Department of Geography, University of Namur, Namur, Belgium.
Naturalis Biodiversity Center, Leiden, The Netherlands.
Glob Chang Biol. 2018 Jan;24(1):101-116. doi: 10.1111/gcb.13867. Epub 2017 Sep 21.
Bumblebees in Europe have been in steady decline since the 1900s. This decline is expected to continue with climate change as the main driver. However, at the local scale, land use and land cover (LULC) change strongly affects the occurrence of bumblebees. At present, LULC change is rarely included in models of future distributions of species. This study's objective is to compare the roles of dynamic LULC change and climate change on the projected distribution patterns of 48 European bumblebee species for three change scenarios until 2100 at the scales of Europe, and Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg (BENELUX). We compared three types of models: (1) only climate covariates, (2) climate and static LULC covariates and (3) climate and dynamic LULC covariates. The climate and LULC change scenarios used in the models include, extreme growth applied strategy (GRAS), business as might be usual and sustainable European development goals. We analysed model performance, range gain/loss and the shift in range limits for all bumblebees. Overall, model performance improved with the introduction of LULC covariates. Dynamic models projected less range loss and gain than climate-only projections, and greater range loss and gain than static models. Overall, there is considerable variation in species responses and effects were most pronounced at the BENELUX scale. The majority of species were predicted to lose considerable range, particularly under the extreme growth scenario (GRAS; overall mean: 64% ± 34). Model simulations project a number of local extinctions and considerable range loss at the BENELUX scale (overall mean: 56% ± 39). Therefore, we recommend species-specific modelling to understand how LULC and climate interact in future modelling. The efficacy of dynamic LULC change should improve with higher thematic and spatial resolution. Nevertheless, current broad scale representations of change in major land use classes impact modelled future distribution patterns.
自 20 世纪以来，欧洲的熊蜂数量一直在稳步下降。这种下降预计将随着气候变化继续下去，气候变化是主要驱动因素。然而，在局部尺度上，土地利用和土地覆盖（LULC）的变化强烈影响着熊蜂的发生。目前，LULC 的变化很少被纳入物种未来分布模型中。本研究的目的是比较动态 LULC 变化和气候变化对 48 种欧洲熊蜂物种分布模式的影响，直到 2100 年，研究范围包括欧洲、比利时、荷兰和卢森堡（BENELUX）。我们比较了三种类型的模型：（1）仅气候协变量，（2）气候和静态 LULC 协变量，以及（3）气候和动态 LULC 协变量。模型中使用的气候和 LULC 变化情景包括，极端增长应用策略（GRAS）、商业惯例和可持续的欧洲发展目标。我们分析了所有熊蜂的模型性能、范围增益/损失和范围界限的变化。总体而言，随着 LULC 协变量的引入，模型性能得到了提高。动态模型预测的范围损失和增益小于仅气候预测，而大于静态模型。总体而言，物种的反应存在相当大的差异，而且在 BENELUX 尺度上的影响最为显著。大多数物种预计将失去相当大的范围，特别是在极端增长情景（GRAS）下（总体平均值：64%±34%）。模型模拟预测在 BENELUX 尺度上会出现一些局部灭绝和相当大的范围损失（总体平均值：56%±39%）。因此，我们建议进行特定物种的建模，以了解 LULC 和气候如何在未来建模中相互作用。随着主题和空间分辨率的提高，动态 LULC 变化的效果应该会提高。然而，目前主要土地利用类型变化的大尺度表示仍会影响到模型预测的未来分布模式。
