Percy FitzPatrick Institute, DST-NRF Centre of Excellence, University of Cape Town, Cape Town 7701, South Africa.
School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3800, Australia.
Conserv Biol. 2018 Apr;32(2):424-436. doi: 10.1111/cobi.12999. Epub 2017 Dec 11.
The ability of private conservation organizations to remain financially viable is a key factor influencing their effectiveness. One-third of financially motivated private-land conservation areas (PLCAs) surveyed in South Africa are unprofitable, raising questions about landowners' abilities to effectively adapt their business models to the socioeconomic environment. In any complex system, options for later adaptation can be constrained by starting conditions (path dependence). We tested 3 hypothesized drivers of path dependence in PLCA ecotourism and hunting business models: (H1) the initial size of a PLCA limits the number of mammalian game and thereby predators that can be sustained; (H2) initial investments in infrastructure limit the ability to introduce predators; and (H3) rainfall limits game and predator abundance. We further assessed how managing for financial stability (optimized game stocking) or ecological sustainability (allowing game to fluctuate with environmental conditions) influenced the ability to overcome path dependence. A mechanistic PLCA model based on simple ecological and financial rules was run for different initial conditions and management strategies, simulating landowner options for adapting their business model annually. Despite attempts by simulated landowners to increase profits, adopted business models after 13 years were differentiated by initial land and infrastructural assets, supporting H1 and H2. A conservation organization's initial assets can cause it to become locked into a financially vulnerable business model. In our 50-year simulation, path dependence was overcome by fewer of the landowners who facilitated natural ecological variability than those who maintained constant hunting rates and predator numbers, but the latter experienced unsustainably high game densities in low rainfall years. Management for natural variability supported long-term ecological sustainability but not shorter term socioeconomic sustainability for PLCAs. Our findings highlight trade-offs between ecological and economic sustainability and suggest a role for governmental support of the private conservation industry.
私营保护组织保持财务可行性的能力是影响其效力的关键因素。在南非调查的三分之一以财务为动机的私人土地保护区（PLCAs）无利可图，这引发了人们对土地所有者是否有能力有效调整其商业模式以适应社会经济环境的质疑。在任何复杂的系统中，后期适应的选择都可能受到初始条件（路径依赖）的限制。我们测试了 PLCAs 生态旅游和狩猎商业模式中路径依赖的 3 个假设驱动因素：（H1）PLCA 的初始规模限制了可以维持的哺乳动物猎物和捕食者的数量；（H2）基础设施的初始投资限制了引入捕食者的能力；（H3）降雨量限制了猎物和捕食者的数量。我们进一步评估了为财务稳定（优化猎物存栏量）或生态可持续性（允许猎物随环境条件波动）进行管理如何影响克服路径依赖的能力。根据简单的生态和财务规则，我们为不同的初始条件和管理策略运行了一个机制性的 PLCA 模型，模拟了土地所有者每年调整其商业模式的选择。尽管模拟土地所有者试图增加利润，但经过 13 年，采用的商业模式因初始土地和基础设施资产而有所不同，支持了 H1 和 H2。保护组织的初始资产可能使其陷入财务脆弱的商业模式。在我们的 50 年模拟中，通过促进自然生态变化的土地所有者比维持固定狩猎率和捕食者数量的土地所有者更能克服路径依赖，但后者在降雨量低的年份会经历不可持续的高猎物密度。对自然变异性的管理支持 PLCAs 的长期生态可持续性，但不支持短期社会经济可持续性。我们的研究结果强调了生态和经济可持续性之间的权衡，并表明政府对私营保护行业的支持作用。
