Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, Mol, Belgium.
Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium.
Sci Rep. 2017 Aug 18;7(1):8762. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-07113-y.
On 6 January 2016, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea announced to have conducted its fourth nuclear test. Analysis of the corresponding seismic waves from the Punggye-ri nuclear test site showed indeed that an underground man-made explosion took place, although the nuclear origin of the explosion needs confirmation. Seven weeks after the announced nuclear test, radioactive xenon was observed in Japan by a noble gas measurement station of the International Monitoring System. In this paper, atmospheric transport modelling is used to show that the measured radioactive xenon is compatible with a delayed release from the Punggye-ri nuclear test site. An uncertainty quantification on the modelling results is given by using the ensemble method. The latter is important for policy makers and helps advance data fusion, where different nuclear Test-Ban-Treaty monitoring techniques are combined.
2016 年 1 月 6 日，朝鲜民主主义人民共和国宣布进行了第四次核试验。对来自丰溪里核试验场的相应地震波的分析表明，确实发生了一次地下人为爆炸，尽管爆炸的核起源仍需确认。在宣布核试验七周后，日本的国际监测系统的一个稀有气体测量站观测到了放射性氙。本文利用大气传输模型表明，所测量的放射性氙与来自丰溪里核试验场的延迟释放是一致的。利用集合方法对模型结果进行了不确定性量化。这对决策者很重要，并有助于推进数据融合，即将不同的《全面禁止核试验条约》监测技术结合起来。
