Kopp Leia, Atance Cristina M, Pearce Sean
University of Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
Br J Dev Psychol. 2017 Nov;35(4):623-627. doi: 10.1111/bjdp.12210. Epub 2017 Sep 13.
Adults often overpredict the emotional intensity of future events, but little is known about whether this 'intensity bias' is present in early childhood. We asked 48 3- to 5-year-olds to (1) predict and (2) report their emotions concerning two desirable (receiving four stickers, scoring up to two points in a ball toss) and two undesirable (receiving one sticker, scoring no points) outcomes. Children showed the intensity bias by overpredicting how negatively they would feel if they received one sticker, but not for scoring no points. We discuss how task factors (e.g., personal volition) and cognitive mechanisms (e.g., immune neglect) may influence children's tendency to show the intensity bias. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? Adults tend to overpredict the intensity of their emotional reactions to future events. Whether similar 'affective forecasting' errors characterize preschoolers' predictions is not known. What does this study add? We created two forecasting tasks ('sticker' and 'ball') with both desirable and undesirable outcomes. We obtained evidence for a 'negativity' but not a 'positivity' bias in children's predictions. On the sticker task, children overpredicted how badly they would feel after receiving one, versus, four stickers.
成年人常常过度预测未来事件的情绪强度，但对于这种“强度偏差”在幼儿期是否存在却知之甚少。我们让48名3至5岁的儿童：（1）预测并（2）报告他们对于两种期望结果（得到四张贴纸、抛球得分高达两分）和两种非期望结果（得到一张贴纸、不得分）的情绪。儿童表现出强度偏差，即过度预测如果他们得到一张贴纸会有多负面的感受，但对于不得分的情况则没有。我们讨论了任务因素（如个人意愿）和认知机制（如免疫忽视）如何可能影响儿童表现出强度偏差的倾向。贡献声明关于这个主题已知的情况是什么？成年人往往过度预测他们对未来事件的情绪反应强度。学龄前儿童的预测是否存在类似的“情感预测”错误尚不清楚。这项研究增加了什么？我们创建了两个预测任务（“贴纸”和“抛球”），既有期望结果也有非期望结果。我们获得了证据，表明儿童预测中存在“消极”偏差而非“积极”偏差。在贴纸任务中，儿童过度预测了他们在得到一张贴纸后与得到四张贴纸后相比会感觉有多糟糕。
