Division of Bioinformatics, Research Center for Zoonosis Control, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan.
JST, PRESTO, 4-1-8 Honcho, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan.
Biomed Res Int. 2017;2017:3564861. doi: 10.1155/2017/3564861. Epub 2017 Aug 22.
Understanding the epidemiology of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) requires knowledge of sexual behavior, but self-reported behavior has limitations. We explored the reliability and validity of nonpaternity and half-siblings ratios as biomarkers of current and past extramarital sex.
An individual-based Monte Carlo simulation model was constructed to describe partnering and conception in human populations with a focus on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The model was parameterized with representative biological, behavioral, and demographic data.
Nonpaternity and half-siblings ratios were strongly correlated with extramarital sex, with Pearson correlation coefficients (PCC) of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.71-0.86) and 0.77 (0.68-0.84), respectively. Age-specific nonpaternity ratios correlated with past extramarital sex at time of conception for different scenarios: for example, PCC, after smoothing by moving averages, was 0.75 (0.52-0.89) in a scenario of steadily decreasing nonmarital sex and 0.39 (0.01-0.73) in a scenario of transient drops in nonmarital sex. Simulations assuming self-reported levels of extramarital sex from Kenya yielded nonpaternity levels lower than global nonpaternity data, suggesting sizable underreporting of extramarital sex.
Nonpaternity and half-siblings ratios are useful objective measures of extramarital sex that avoid limitations in self-reported sexual behavior.
了解艾滋病毒和其他性传播感染（STIs）的流行病学需要了解性行为，但自我报告的行为存在局限性。我们探讨了非父子关系和半同胞关系比率作为婚外性行为的当前和过去的生物标志物的可靠性和有效性。
构建了基于个体的蒙特卡罗模拟模型，以描述撒哈拉以南非洲（SSA）人群中的伴侣关系和受孕。该模型使用具有代表性的生物学、行为和人口统计学数据进行参数化。
非父子关系和半同胞关系比率与婚外性行为密切相关，Pearson 相关系数（PCC）分别为 0.79（95%CI：0.71-0.86）和 0.77（0.68-0.84）。不同情景下，年龄特异性非父子关系比率与受孕时的过去婚外性行为相关：例如，在稳定下降的婚外性行为情景下，经移动平均平滑处理后的 PCC 为 0.75（0.52-0.89），在婚外性行为短暂下降的情景下为 0.39（0.01-0.73）。假设肯尼亚自我报告的婚外性行为水平进行模拟，得到的非父子关系水平低于全球非父子关系数据，这表明婚外性行为存在大量漏报。
非父子关系和半同胞关系比率是衡量婚外性行为的有用客观指标，可以避免自我报告性行为的局限性。
