Crittenden Neil E, Rashed Hani, Johnson William D, Cowan George, Tichansky David, Madan Atul, Aslam Naeem, Cutts Teresa, Abell Thomas L
University of Louisville, Louisville, KY, USA.
University of Tennessee Health Science Center and Methodist Hospital, Memphis, TN, USA.
Gastroenterology Res. 2017 Aug;10(4):218-223. doi: 10.14740/gr885w. Epub 2017 Aug 31.
A multi-component model of autonomic and enteric factors may correlate with ultimate weight loss or gain after restrictive obesity surgery. This study aimed to determine relevant parameters to predict successful long-term weight loss.
Thirty-nine patients (four males and 35 females) with a mean age of 37.2 years were followed for over 15 years after vertical banded gastroplasty. Baseline adrenergic: postural adjustment ratio (PAR) and vasoconstriction (VC); cholinergic: electrocardiogram R-to-R interval (RRI) and enteric measure: electrogastrogram (EGG) were utilized by a discriminant function analysis to classify patients as a long-term loser or gainer. Using latest weight compared to baseline, patients were divided as 10 gainers and 29 losers.
A discriminate model successfully predicted ultimate weight gain in 8/10 (80%) of patients who subsequently gained weight and weight loss in 24/29 (83%) of patients who lost weight for a total correct classification of 32/39 (82%). The same model with data at 3 months postoperatively predicted weight gain in 9/10 (90%) of patients and weight loss in 24/29 (83%) of patients, for a total correct classification of 34/39 (87%).
A multi-component model at baseline and 3 months postoperative can predict long-term weight outcome from restrictive obesity surgery.
自主神经和肠道因素的多组分模型可能与限制性肥胖手术后的最终体重减轻或增加相关。本研究旨在确定预测长期成功减重的相关参数。
39例患者（4例男性和35例女性），平均年龄37.2岁，在垂直束带胃成形术后随访超过15年。通过判别函数分析利用基线肾上腺素能：体位调整率（PAR）和血管收缩（VC）；胆碱能：心电图R-R间期（RRI）和肠道指标：胃电图（EGG）将患者分类为长期体重增加者或体重减轻者。根据与基线相比的最新体重，将患者分为10例体重增加者和29例体重减轻者。
一个判别模型成功预测了8/10（80%）随后体重增加患者的最终体重增加以及24/29（83%）体重减轻患者的体重减轻，总正确分类率为32/39（82%）。使用术后3个月的数据的相同模型预测了9/10（90%）患者的体重增加和24/29（83%）患者的体重减轻，总正确分类率为34/39（87%）。
基线和术后3个月的多组分模型可以预测限制性肥胖手术的长期体重结果。
