Aggio Daniel, Papacosta Olia, Lennon Lucy, Whincup Peter, Wannamethee Goya, Jefferis Barbara J
UCL Department of Primary Care and Population Health, UCL Medical School, London, UK.
UCL PA Research Group, London, UK.
BMJ Open. 2017 Sep 21;7(8):e017378. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2017-017378.
This study aims to examine the tracking and predictability of physical activity in old age from overall physical activity and participation in sport, recreational activity and walking in mid-life.
Prospective population-based cohort study.
British Regional Heart Study participants recruited from primary care centres in the UK in 1978-1980.
Men (n=3413) self-reported their physical activity at baseline, 12, 16 and 20-year follow-ups and were categorised as inactive or active and having high or low participation in sport, walking and recreational activities. Tracking was assessed using kappa statistics and random effects models. Logistic regression estimated the odds of being active at 20-year follow-up according to physical activity participation in mid-life.
Among 3413 men (mean age at baseline 48.6±5.4 years) with complete data, tracking of overall physical activity was moderate (kappa: 0.23-0.26). Tracking was higher for sports participation (kappa: 0.35-0.38) compared with recreational activity (kappa: 0.16-0.24) and walking (kappa: 0.11-0.15). Intraclass correlation coefficients demonstrated similar levels of stability and only marginally weakened after controlling for covariates. Compared with inactive men, being active at baseline was associated with greater odds of being active at 20-year follow-up (OR 2.7, 95% CI 2.4 to 3.2) after adjusting for sociodemographic, health and lifestyle variables. Playing sport in mid-life was more strongly associated with being active at 20-year follow-up than other domains, particularly when sport participation began earlier in life.
Being physically active in mid-life increases the odds of being active in old age. Promoting physical activity in later life might be best achieved by promoting sport participation earlier in the life course.
本研究旨在探讨从中年时期的总体身体活动、参与运动、娱乐活动及步行情况来追踪和预测老年时期的身体活动。
基于人群的前瞻性队列研究。
1978 - 1980年从英国初级保健中心招募的英国地区心脏研究参与者。
男性（n = 3413）在基线、随访12年、16年和20年时自我报告其身体活动情况，并被分类为不活跃或活跃，以及在运动、步行和娱乐活动方面参与程度高或低。使用kappa统计量和随机效应模型评估追踪情况。逻辑回归根据中年时期的身体活动参与情况估计20年随访时活跃的几率。
在3413名（基线时平均年龄48.6±5.4岁）有完整数据的男性中，总体身体活动的追踪情况为中等（kappa：0.23 - 0.26）。与娱乐活动（kappa：0.16 - 0.24）和步行（kappa：0.11 - 0.15）相比，运动参与的追踪情况更高（kappa：0.35 - 0.38）。组内相关系数显示出相似的稳定性水平，在控制协变量后仅略有减弱。与不活跃的男性相比，在调整社会人口统计学、健康和生活方式变量后，基线时活跃的男性在20年随访时活跃的几率更高（比值比2.7，95%置信区间2.4至3.2）。中年时期进行运动与20年随访时活跃的关联比其他领域更强，尤其是当运动参与在生命早期开始时。
中年时期身体活跃会增加老年时期活跃的几率。通过在生命历程中更早地促进运动参与，可能是促进晚年身体活动的最佳方式。
