Department of Methodology and Statistics, Tilburg University, P.O. Box 90153, 5000 LE, Tilburg, The Netherlands.
Department of Sociology, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Behav Res Methods. 2018 Aug;50(4):1515-1539. doi: 10.3758/s13428-017-0967-6.
The unrealistically high rate of positive results within psychology has increased the attention to replication research. However, researchers who conduct a replication and want to statistically combine the results of their replication with a statistically significant original study encounter problems when using traditional meta-analysis techniques. The original study's effect size is most probably overestimated because it is statistically significant, and this bias is not taken into consideration in traditional meta-analysis. We have developed a hybrid method that does take the statistical significance of an original study into account and enables (a) accurate effect size estimation, (b) estimation of a confidence interval, and (c) testing of the null hypothesis of no effect. We analytically approximate the performance of the hybrid method and describe its statistical properties. By applying the hybrid method to data from the Reproducibility Project: Psychology (Open Science Collaboration, 2015), we demonstrate that the conclusions based on the hybrid method are often in line with those of the replication, suggesting that many published psychological studies have smaller effect sizes than those reported in the original study, and that some effects may even be absent. We offer hands-on guidelines for how to statistically combine an original study and replication, and have developed a Web-based application ( https://rvanaert.shinyapps.io/hybrid ) for applying the hybrid method.
心理学中不切实际的高阳性结果率增加了对复制研究的关注。然而,进行复制研究的研究人员希望将他们的复制结果与具有统计学意义的原始研究进行统计合并时,在使用传统的元分析技术时会遇到问题。原始研究的效应大小很可能被高估,因为它具有统计学意义,而传统的元分析并没有考虑到这种偏差。我们开发了一种混合方法,它考虑了原始研究的统计学意义,并能够(a)准确估计效应大小,(b)估计置信区间,以及(c)检验无效应的零假设。我们对混合方法的性能进行了分析,并描述了其统计性质。通过将混合方法应用于《心理学可重复性项目》(Open Science Collaboration,2015)的数据,我们证明了基于混合方法的结论通常与复制研究的结论一致,这表明许多已发表的心理学研究的效应大小比原始研究报告的要小,而且有些效应甚至可能不存在。我们提供了如何对原始研究和复制进行统计合并的实用指南,并开发了一个基于网络的应用程序(https://rvanaert.shinyapps.io/hybrid)来应用混合方法。