BACKGROUND: Preventing falls and fall-related injuries among older adults is a public health priority. The Stopping Elderly Accidents, Deaths, and Injuries (STEADI) tool was developed to promote fall risk screening and encourage coordination between clinical and community-based fall prevention resources; however, little is known about the tool's predictive validity or adaptability to survey data. METHODS: Data from five annual rounds (2011-2015) of the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS), a representative cohort of adults age 65 years and older in the USA. Analytic sample respondents (n=7392) were categorised at baseline as having low, moderate or high fall risk according to the STEADI algorithm adapted for use with NHATS data. Logistic mixed-effects regression was used to estimate the association between baseline fall risk and subsequent falls and mortality. Analyses incorporated complex sampling and weighting elements to permit inferences at a national level. RESULTS: Participants classified as having moderate and high fall risk had 2.62 (95% CI 2.29 to 2.99) and 4.76 (95% CI 3.51 to 6.47) times greater odds of falling during follow-up compared with those with low risk, respectively, controlling for sociodemographic and health-related risk factors for falls. High fall risk was also associated with greater likelihood of falling multiple times annually but not with greater risk of mortality. CONCLUSION: The adapted STEADI clinical fall risk screening tool is a valid measure for predicting future fall risk using survey cohort data. Further efforts to standardise screening for fall risk and to coordinate between clinical and community-based fall prevention initiatives are warranted.