Forecasting influenza A pandemic outbreak using protein dynamical network biomarkers.

BACKGROUND

Influenza A virus is prone to mutation and susceptible to human beings and spread in the crowds when affected by the external environment or other factors. It is very necessary to forecast influenza A pandemic outbreak.

METHODS

This paper studies the different states of influenza A in the method of dynamical network biomarkers. Through establishing protein dynamical network biomarkers of influenza A virus protein, a composite index is ultimately obtained to forecast influenza A pandemic outbreak.

RESULTS

The composite index varies along with the state of pandemic influenza virus from a relatively steady state to critical state before outbreak and then to the outbreak state. When the composite index continuous decreases for 2 years and increases of more than o.1 suddenly, it means the next year is normally in the outbreak state. Therefore, we can predict and identify whether a certain year is in the critical state before influenza A outbreak or outbreak state by observing the variation of index value. Meanwhile, through data analysis for different countries influenza A pandemic outbreak in different countries can also be forecasted.

CONCLUSIONS

This indicates the composite index can provide significant warning information to detect the stage of influenza A, which will be significantly meaningful for the warning and prevention of influenza A pandemic.