Sun Dating, Ding Hu, Zhao Chunxia, Li Yuanyuan, Wang Jing, Yan Jiangtao, Wang Dao Wen
Division of Cardiology, Department of Internal Medicine, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, People's Republic of China.
Oncotarget. 2017 Jun 27;8(38):63073-63083. doi: 10.18632/oncotarget.18634. eCollection 2017 Sep 8.
Acute myocarditis is an uncommon and potentially life-threatening disease. Scoring systems are essential for predicting outcome and evaluating the therapy effect of adult patients with acute myocarditis. The aim of this study was to determine the value of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV (APACHE IV) and second Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS II) scoring systems in predicting short-term mortality of these patients. We retrospectively analyzed data from 305 adult patients suffering from acute myocarditis between April 2005 and August 2016. The association between the value of admission SOFA, APACHE IV and SAPS II scores and risk of short-term mortality was determined. Multivariate Cox analysis showed that SOFA, APACHE IV and SAPS II scores were independent risk factors of death in patients with acute myocarditis. For each scoring system, Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the cumulative short-term mortality was significantly higher in patients with higher admission scores compared with those with lower admission scores. For the prediction of short-term mortality in a patient with acute myocarditis, SAPS II had the highest accuracy followed by the APACHE IV and SOFA scores.
急性心肌炎是一种罕见且可能危及生命的疾病。评分系统对于预测成年急性心肌炎患者的预后及评估治疗效果至关重要。本研究旨在确定序贯器官衰竭评估（SOFA）、急性生理与慢性健康状况评估IV（APACHE IV）和简化急性生理学评分II（SAPS II）评分系统在预测这些患者短期死亡率方面的价值。我们回顾性分析了2005年4月至2016年8月期间305例成年急性心肌炎患者的数据。确定了入院时SOFA、APACHE IV和SAPS II评分值与短期死亡风险之间的关联。多因素Cox分析表明，SOFA、APACHE IV和SAPS II评分是急性心肌炎患者死亡的独立危险因素。对于每个评分系统，Kaplan-Meier分析显示，入院评分较高的患者累积短期死亡率显著高于入院评分较低的患者。对于预测急性心肌炎患者的短期死亡率，SAPS II的准确性最高，其次是APACHE IV和SOFA评分。
