Institute of Epidemiology and Medical Biometry, Ulm University, Helmholtzstr. 22, 89081, Ulm, Germany.
Department of Neurology, Ulm University, Ulm, Germany.
Eur J Epidemiol. 2017 Oct;32(10):901-908. doi: 10.1007/s10654-017-0318-z. Epub 2017 Oct 3.
Weight loss appears as a strong predictor of survival of patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, yet no data are currently available to describe the life course history of pre-diagnostic body mass index (BMI) in these patients. 393 ALS cases (mean age: 65.8 years, 57.3% men) and 791 controls matched by age and sex from a population-based case-control study of the ALS Registry Swabia were analyzed. Differences of BMI change in cases and controls over time were modeled using a multilevel additive model. In addition, survival in ALS cases by BMI change was modeled using an accelerated failure time model adjusted for prognostic factors. In ALS cases, BMI was consistently higher than in controls in the 20-70 years before the interview. Conditional logistic regression revealed an odds ratio of 1.05 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00-1.11, p = 0.041) per 1 kg/m higher BMI 35-45 years before interview. However, a sharp decrease was evident in the BMI of ALS cases about 10 years before disease onset. Moreover, weight loss was strongly associated with shorter survival in ALS patients. Illustrating this, patients with stable weight showed a median survival time of 22.1 (95%-CI 19.2-25.0) months, as compared to 13.4 (95%-CI 10.5-16.3) months for patients with weight loss of 2.5 kg/m over the last 3 months before the interview. Thus, alterations in body weight are present in ALS patients already decades before clinical manifestation of ALS, while weight loss precedes motor symptoms of several years and is associated with poor prognosis.
体重减轻似乎是肌萎缩侧索硬化症(ALS)患者生存的强有力预测因素,但目前尚无数据描述这些患者在诊断前体质量指数(BMI)的生命历程。对来自 ALS 斯瓦比亚登记处的基于人群的病例对照研究中的 393 例 ALS 病例(平均年龄:65.8 岁,57.3%为男性)和 791 例年龄和性别匹配的对照进行了分析。使用多层次加法模型对病例和对照随时间的 BMI 变化差异进行建模。此外,使用调整预后因素的加速失效时间模型对 ALS 病例的 BMI 变化与生存率进行建模。在 ALS 病例中,在访谈前 20-70 年内,BMI 始终高于对照组。条件逻辑回归显示,在访谈前 35-45 年内 BMI 每增加 1kg/m,比值比为 1.05(95%置信区间(CI)为 1.00-1.11,p=0.041)。然而,在疾病发作前约 10 年内,ALS 病例的 BMI 明显下降。此外,体重减轻与 ALS 患者的生存时间缩短密切相关。说明这一点,体重稳定的患者中位生存时间为 22.1(95%CI 19.2-25.0)个月,而在访谈前 3 个月内体重减轻 2.5kg/m 的患者中位生存时间为 13.4(95%CI 10.5-16.3)个月。因此,在 ALS 患者出现临床症状前几十年就已经存在体重变化,而体重减轻发生在运动症状前数年,并与预后不良相关。