Taniyama Yukari, Katanoda Kota, Charvat Hadrien, Hori Megumi, Ohno Yuko, Sasazuki Shizuka, Tsugane Shoichiro
Department of Mathematical Health Science, Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka University, Osaka.
Division of Cancer Statistics Integration, Center for Cancer Control and Information Services, National Cancer Center.
Jpn J Clin Oncol. 2017 Nov 1;47(11):1097-1102. doi: 10.1093/jjco/hyx128.
To estimate cumulative incidence and mortality risk for gastric cancer by risk category.
Risk was classified into four types according to the presence/absence of Helicobacter pylori infection and chronic atrophic gastritis: in order of lowest to highest risk, Group A: H. pylori(-) and atrophic gastritis(-); Group B: H. pylori(+) and atrophic gastritis(-); Group C:H. pylori(+) and atrophic gastritis(+); and, Group D: H. pylori(-) and atrophic gastritis(+). We used vital statistics for the crude all-cause and crude gastric cancer mortality rates in 2011 and data from population-based cancer registries (the Monitoring of Cancer Incidence in Japan) for gastric cancer incidence in 2011. For relative risk and prevalence, we used the results of a meta-analysis integrating previous studies and data from the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study for the Next Generation, respectively (baseline survey 2011-16). We calculated the crude incidence and mortality rates and estimated the cumulative risk using a life-table method.
The estimated lifetime cumulative incidence risk was 11.4% for men and 5.7% for women. The estimated risk for Groups A, B, C and D was 2.4%, 10.8%, 26.7% and 35.5% for men, and 1.2%, 5.5%, 13.5% and 18.0% for women, respectively. Similarly, the estimated lifetime cumulative mortality risk was 3.9% for men and 1.8% for women. The estimated risk of mortality for Groups A, B, C and D was 0.8%, 3.6%, 9.0% and 12.0% for men, and 0.4%, 1.7%, 4.2% and 5.7% for women, respectively.
Our results may be useful for designing individually tailored prevention programs.
按风险类别估计胃癌的累积发病率和死亡风险。
根据幽门螺杆菌感染和慢性萎缩性胃炎的有无将风险分为四类：按风险由低到高顺序，A组：幽门螺杆菌（-）且萎缩性胃炎（-）；B组：幽门螺杆菌（+）且萎缩性胃炎（-）；C组：幽门螺杆菌（+）且萎缩性胃炎（+）；D组：幽门螺杆菌（-）且萎缩性胃炎（+）。我们使用了2011年全因粗死亡率和胃癌粗死亡率的生命统计数据以及基于人群的癌症登记处（日本癌症发病率监测）2011年的胃癌发病率数据。对于相对风险和患病率，我们分别使用了整合先前研究结果和来自日本下一代基于公共卫生中心的前瞻性研究数据的荟萃分析结果（2011 - 2016年基线调查）。我们计算了粗发病率和死亡率，并使用生命表法估计累积风险。
男性估计的终生累积发病风险为11.4%，女性为5.7%。A、B、C和D组男性的估计风险分别为2.4%、10.8%、26.7%和35.5%，女性分别为1.2%、5.5%、13.5%和18.0%。同样，男性估计的终生累积死亡风险为3.9%，女性为1.8%。A、B、C和D组男性的估计死亡风险分别为0.8%、3.6%、9.0%和12.0%，女性分别为0.4%、1.7%、4.2%和5.7%。
我们的结果可能有助于设计个性化的预防方案。
