快速公交对公交客流量变化的因果效应。
The Causal Effect of Bus Rapid Transit on Changes in Transit Ridership.
作者信息
Stewart Orion T, Moudon Anne Vernez, Saelens Brian E
机构信息
University of Washington.
University of Washington and Seattle Children's Research Institute.
出版信息
J Public Trans. 2017;20(1):91-103. doi: 10.5038/2375-0901.20.1.5.
Numerous studies have reported ridership increases along routes when Bus rapid transit (BRT) replaces conventional bus service, but these increases could be due simply to broader temporal trends in transit ridership. To address this limitation, we compared changes in ridership among routes where BRT was implemented to routes where BRT was planned or already existed in King County, Washington. Ridership was measured at 2010, 2013, and 2014. Ridership increased by 35% along routes where BRT was implemented from 2010 to 2013 compared to routes that maintained conventional bus service. Ridership increased by 29% along routes where BRT was implemented from 2013 to 2014 compared to consistent existing BRT service. These results provide stronger evidence for a causal relationship between BRT and increased transit ridership and a more accurate estimate of the independent effect of BRT on ridership.
众多研究报告称，当快速公交（BRT）取代传统公交服务时，沿线客流量会增加，但这些增加可能仅仅归因于公交客流量更广泛的时间趋势。为解决这一局限性，我们比较了华盛顿州金县实施BRT的线路与规划中或已存在BRT的线路之间的客流量变化。在2010年、2013年和2014年对客流量进行了测量。与维持传统公交服务的线路相比，2010年至2013年实施BRT的线路客流量增加了35%。与现有的持续BRT服务相比，2013年至2014年实施BRT的线路客流量增加了29%。这些结果为BRT与公交客流量增加之间的因果关系提供了更有力的证据，也更准确地估计了BRT对客流量的独立影响。
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