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黑海热比容特性：长期趋势与变化

Black Sea thermohaline properties: Long-term trends and variations.

作者信息

Miladinova S, Stips A, Garcia-Gorriz E, Macias Moy D

机构信息

DG Joint Research Centre, Directorate D - Sustainable Resources, Water and Marine Resources Italy.

Institute of Mechanics, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences Sofia Bulgaria.

出版信息

J Geophys Res Oceans. 2017 Jul;122(7):5624-5644. doi: 10.1002/2016JC012644. Epub 2017 Jul 13.

DOI:10.1002/2016JC012644
PMID:28989833
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5606501/
Abstract

The current knowledge about spatial and temporal dynamics of the Black Sea's thermohaline structure is incomplete because of missing data and sparse distribution of existing measurements in space and time. This study presents 56 year continuous simulations of the Black Sea's hydrodynamics using the 3D General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM), without incorporating any relaxation toward climatological or observational data fields. This property of the model allows us to estimate independent temporal trends, in addition to resolving the spatial structure. The simulations suggest that the intermediate layer temperature is characterized by a weak positive trend (warming), whereas the surface temperature does not show a clear linear trend. Different salinity trends have been established at the surface (negative), upper (weaker negative) and main halocline (positive). Three distinct dynamic periods are identified (1960-1970, 1970-1995, 1995-2015), which exhibit pronounced changes in the Black Sea's thermohaline properties and basin circulation. Strengthening of the main cyclonic circulation, accompanied by intensification of the mesoscale anticyclonic eddy formation is found. Both events strongly affect the sea surface salinity but contribute in opposing directions. Specifically, strong composite large-scale circulation leads to an increase in sea surface salinity, while enhanced formation of mesoscale anticyclones decreases it. Salinity evolution with time is thus the result of the competition of these two opposing yet interdependent processes.

摘要

由于数据缺失以及现有测量在空间和时间上的稀疏分布，目前关于黑海热比容结构的时空动态的认识并不完整。本研究使用三维通用河口输运模型（GETM）对黑海的水动力进行了56年的连续模拟，未纳入任何向气候学或观测数据场的松弛。该模型的这一特性使我们除了解析空间结构外，还能够估计独立的时间趋势。模拟结果表明，中间层温度呈现出微弱的正趋势（变暖），而表层温度没有明显的线性趋势。在表层（负）、上层（较弱的负）和主要盐跃层（正）建立了不同的盐度趋势。识别出三个不同的动态时期（1960 - 1970年、1970 - 1995年、1995 - 2015年），这些时期黑海的热比容特性和盆地环流呈现出明显变化。发现主要气旋环流增强，同时中尺度反气旋涡旋形成加剧。这两个事件都强烈影响海面盐度，但作用方向相反。具体而言，强烈的合成大尺度环流导致海面盐度增加，而中尺度反气旋的增强形成则使其降低。因此，盐度随时间的演变是这两个相反但相互依存的过程竞争的结果。

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