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"元分析和 P 曲线支持女性配偶偏好的稳健周期转变:对伍德和卡登(2014)以及哈里斯、帕什勒和米克斯(2014)的回复":对吉尔德斯leeve、哈塞尔顿和法尔斯(2014)的更正。

"Meta-analyses and P-curves support robust cycle shifts in women's mate preferences: Reply to Wood and Carden (2014) and Harris, Pashler, and Mickes (2014)": Correction to Gildersleeve, Haselton, and Fales (2014).

出版信息

Psychol Bull. 2017 Nov;143(11):iii. doi: 10.1037/bul0000129.

DOI:10.1037/bul0000129
PMID:29048180
Abstract

Reports an error in "Meta-analyses and -curves support robust cycle shifts in women's mate preferences: Reply to Wood and Carden (2014) and Harris, Pashler, and Mickes (2014)" by Kelly Gildersleeve, Martie G. Haselton and Melissa R. Fales (, 2014[Sep], Vol 140[5], 1272-1280). In the article, all -curve analyses examining the Context Moderation Hypothesis Prediction mistakenly included the p-value from Little, Jones, Burt, & Perrett (2007) Study 2 for the simple effect of fertility on attraction to facial symmetry in a short-term relationship context ( < .001). The analyses should have instead included the -value for the fertility X relationship context interaction ( = .011). In addition, the -curve analyses examining exact two-tailed -values for the Cycle Shift Prediction should have included an additional -value from Provost et al. (2008) Study 1 for the main effect of fertility on attraction to gait masculinity. The reported -value for this effect was .05, making it ineligible for inclusion in -curves of reported p-values. However, the exact recalculated two-tailed -value was .049, making it eligible for inclusion in -curves of exact -values. The corrected -curve of exact two-tailed -values evaluating the Cycle Shift Prediction and Context Moderation Prediction (displayed in Figure 2) now includes a total of 15 -values ( = 1442) is no longer significantly right skewed χ²(30) = 41.25, = .08. The corrected -curve of exact two-tailed -values evaluating the Cycle Shift Prediction, Context Moderation Prediction, and Partner Qualities Moderation Prediction (displayed in Figure 3) now includes a total of 21 -values ( = 1707) and continues to be significantly right skewed Χ²(42) = 69.83, = .004. As part of this correction, the online supplemental materials have been updated. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2014-35938-003.) Two meta-analyses evaluated shifts across the ovulatory cycle in women's mate preferences but reported very different findings. In this journal, we reported robust evidence for the pattern of cycle shifts predicted by the ovulatory shift hypothesis (Gildersleeve, Haselton, & Fales, 2014). However, Wood, Kressel, Joshi, and Louie (2014) claimed an absence of compelling support for this hypothesis and asserted that the few significant cycle shifts they observed were false positives resulting from publication bias, p-hacking, or other research artifacts. How could 2 meta-analyses of the same literature reach such different conclusions? We reanalyzed the data compiled by Wood et al. These analyses revealed problems in Wood et al.'s meta-analysis-some of which are reproduced in Wood and Carden's (2014) comment in the current issue of this journal-that led them to overlook clear evidence for the ovulatory shift hypothesis in their own set of effects. In addition, we present right-skewed p-curves that directly contradict speculations by Wood et al.; Wood and Carden; and Harris, Pashler, and Mickes (2014) that supportive findings in the cycle shift literature are false positives. Therefore, evidence from both of the meta-analyses and the p-curves strongly supports genuine, robust effects consistent with the ovulatory shift hypothesis and contradicts claims that these effects merely reflect publication bias, p-hacking, or other research artifacts. Unfounded speculations about p-hacking distort the research record and risk unfairly damaging researchers' reputations; they should therefore be made only on the basis of firm evidence. (PsycINFO Database Record

摘要

报告了“元分析和 - 曲线支持女性配偶偏好的稳健周期转变:对 Wood 和 Carden(2014 年)以及 Harris、Pashler 和 Mickes(2014 年)的回应”(凯利·吉尔德斯利夫、马蒂·哈森和梅利莎·R·法尔斯,2014 年 9 月,第 140 卷,第 1272-1280 页)中的一个错误。在这篇文章中,所有检验情境调节假说预测的 - 曲线分析都错误地包括了 Little、Jones、Burt 和 Perrett(2007 年)研究 2 中关于生育对短期关系情境下对面部对称性吸引力的简单效应的 p 值(<.001)。分析本应包括生育与关系情境交互作用的 - 值(=.011)。此外,检验周期转变预测的确切双侧 - 值的 - 曲线分析本应包括 Provost 等人(2008 年)研究 1 中生育对步态男性化吸引力的主要效应的另一个 - 值。该效应的报告 p 值为.05,因此不符合 - 曲线报告 p 值的纳入标准。然而,确切重新计算的双侧 - 值为.049,因此符合 - 曲线报告确切 - 值的纳入标准。修正后的包括 15 个 - 值(= 1442)的周期转变预测和情境调节预测的精确双侧 - 曲线(图 2 中显示)不再显著右偏 χ²(30)= 41.25,=.08。修正后的包括 21 个 - 值(= 1707)的周期转变预测、情境调节预测和伴侣品质调节预测的精确双侧 - 曲线(图 3 中显示)仍然显著右偏 Χ²(42)= 69.83,=.004。作为此次修正的一部分,在线补充材料已经更新。(原始文章的以下摘要出现在记录 2014-35938-003 中。)两项元分析评估了女性配偶偏好在排卵周期中的转变,但报告了非常不同的发现。在本期刊中,我们报告了强有力的证据,证明了排卵假说所预测的周期转变模式(Gildersleeve、Haselton 和 Fales,2014 年)。然而,Wood、Kressel、Joshi 和 Louie(2014 年)声称缺乏对这一假说的有力支持,并断言他们观察到的少数几个显著的周期转变是虚假阳性结果,这是由于出版偏差、p-值操纵或其他研究伪迹造成的。为什么两项对同一文献的元分析会得出如此不同的结论?我们重新分析了 Wood 等人汇编的数据。这些分析揭示了 Wood 等人的元分析中的一些问题——其中一些问题在 Wood 和 Carden 目前这一期的评论中重现——这些问题导致他们忽略了他们自己的一系列效应中明显的排卵转变假说的证据。此外,我们还提出了右偏 p 值曲线,直接反驳了 Wood 等人的推测;Wood 和 Carden;以及 Harris、Pashler 和 Mickes(2014 年),即周期转变文献中的支持性发现是虚假阳性的。因此,来自这两项元分析和 p 值曲线的证据强烈支持与排卵转变假说一致的真实、稳健的效应,并反驳了这些效应仅仅反映出版偏差、p 值操纵或其他研究伪迹的说法。关于 p 值操纵的毫无根据的猜测扭曲了研究记录,并有可能不公平地损害研究人员的声誉;因此,只有在有确凿证据的基础上,才能对此进行猜测。(心理学信息数据库记录)

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