Department of Psychology, Cornell University.
Department of Psychology, University of Michigan.
J Pers Soc Psychol. 2018 Jan;114(1):10-28. doi: 10.1037/pspa0000102. Epub 2017 Nov 2.
Across 6 studies we investigated the development of overconfidence among beginners. In 4 of the studies, participants completed multicue probabilistic learning tasks (e.g., learning to diagnose "zombie diseases" from physical symptoms). Although beginners did not start out overconfident in their judgments, they rapidly surged to a "beginner's bubble" of overconfidence. This bubble was traced to exuberant and error-filled theorizing about how to approach the task formed after just a few learning experiences. Later trials challenged and refined those theories, leading to a temporary leveling off of confidence while performance incrementally improved, although confidence began to rise again after this pause. In 2 additional studies we found a real-world echo of this pattern of overconfidence across the life course. Self-ratings of financial literacy surged among young adults, then leveled off among older respondents until late adulthood, where it begins to rise again, with actual financial knowledge all the while rising more slowly, consistently, and incrementally throughout adulthood. Hence, when it comes to overconfident judgment, a little learning does appear to be a dangerous thing. Although beginners start with humble self-perceptions, with just a little experience their confidence races ahead of their actual performance. (PsycINFO Database Record
我们在 6 项研究中调查了初学者过度自信的发展。在其中 4 项研究中，参与者完成了多线索概率学习任务（例如，从身体症状中学习诊断“僵尸疾病”）。尽管初学者在判断时并不开始过度自信，但他们迅速上升到过度自信的“初学者泡沫”。这种泡沫可以追溯到在仅仅几次学习经验之后形成的关于如何处理任务的过度活跃和充满错误的理论。后来的试验挑战并完善了这些理论，导致信心暂时稳定，尽管在这段停顿之后信心开始再次上升。在另外两项研究中，我们发现这种过度自信模式在整个生命周期中都在现实世界中得到了回应。年轻人的金融知识自我评估飙升，然后在年长的受访者中趋于平稳，直到晚年，信心又开始上升，而实际的金融知识则一直在整个成年期以更慢、更一致和更渐进的方式上升。因此，当涉及到过度自信的判断时，一点学习似乎确实是一件危险的事情。尽管初学者开始时自我评价谦虚，但只要有一点经验，他们的信心就会超过实际表现。
