University of Western Ontario.
University of Toronto.
Can Rev Sociol. 2017 Nov;54(4):519-529. doi: 10.1111/cars.12175.
Tunisia is the only country that emerged from the Arab Spring as a democracy. However, Tunisian democracy is threatened by political divisions, economic problems, and the threat of terrorist attacks. We shed light on Tunisia's democratic prospects by examining (1) the degree to which major terrorist attacks in 2015 influenced Tunisian public opinion on democracy and (2) the extent to which preference for a democratic system affected opinions on the prospects for democracy in Tunisia. We use data from three waves of a nationwide survey conducted just before and just after Tunisia's first major terrorist attack, and just after the country's second major terrorist attack. We demonstrate that after the attacks the Tunisian public became less favourable toward democracy and less optimistic that Tunisia would soon be ready for it. Such scepticism was widespread, affecting people who preferred democracy as much as those who did not. We conclude that the prospects for Tunisian democracy are more precarious than is sometimes assumed.
突尼斯是阿拉伯之春后唯一出现的民主国家。然而，突尼斯的民主受到政治分歧、经济问题和恐怖袭击威胁的威胁。我们通过考察以下两个方面，揭示了突尼斯的民主前景：（1）2015 年的重大恐怖袭击在多大程度上影响了突尼斯公众对民主的看法；（2）对民主制度的偏好在多大程度上影响了他们对突尼斯民主前景的看法。我们使用了在突尼斯第一次重大恐怖袭击之前和之后以及该国第二次重大恐怖袭击之后进行的三次全国性调查的数据。我们表明，在袭击之后，突尼斯公众对民主的支持度降低，对突尼斯即将准备好民主的看法也变得不那么乐观。这种怀疑态度很普遍，影响了那些喜欢民主的人和不喜欢民主的人。我们的结论是，突尼斯民主的前景比人们有时想象的更加不稳定。
