Newman S C, Bland R C
Department of Psychiatry, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada.
Am J Epidemiol. 1989 Feb;129(2):430-8. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a115147.
A method is proposed for using survey data to estimate lower and upper bounds for the lifetime risk of an illness (morbidity risk). The mathematical model used, which is based on a three-state Markov process, assumes that the illness is irreversible, but allows differential mortality. The data required include information on age at onset collected from prevalent cases, and an estimate of the magnitude of differential mortality, which ordinarily must come from published research. The method is illustrated using data from a community survey of psychiatric illness conducted in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
提出了一种利用调查数据来估计疾病终生风险（发病风险）上下限的方法。所使用的数学模型基于三状态马尔可夫过程，假设该疾病是不可逆的，但允许存在差异死亡率。所需数据包括从现患病例中收集的发病年龄信息，以及差异死亡率大小的估计值，通常这必须来自已发表的研究。使用加拿大艾伯塔省埃德蒙顿市进行的一项精神疾病社区调查的数据对该方法进行了说明。
