在建模全球变暖的影响时，无效的假设会导致不切实际的预测。
In modelling effects of global warming, invalid assumptions lead to unrealistic projections.
机构信息
Department of Biosciences, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
Centre for Marine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation, UMR MARBEC (CNRS, IRD, IFREMER, UM), Montpellier, France.
出版信息
Glob Chang Biol. 2018 Feb;24(2):553-556. doi: 10.1111/gcb.13978. Epub 2017 Nov 27.
In their recent Opinion, Pauly and Cheung () provide new projections of future maximum fish weight (W ). Based on criticism by Lefevre et al. (2017) they changed the scaling exponent for anabolism, d . Here we find that changing both d and the scaling exponent for catabolism, b, leads to the projection that fish may even become 98% smaller with a 1°C increase in temperature. This unrealistic outcome indicates that the current W is unlikely to be explained by the Gill-Oxygen Limitation Theory (GOLT) and, therefore, GOLT cannot be used as a mechanistic basis for model projections about fish size in a warmer world.
在他们最近的观点中，Pauly 和 Cheung（）提供了未来最大鱼类体重（W）的新预测。基于 Lefevre 等人（2017）的批评，他们改变了同化作用的标度指数，d。在这里，我们发现改变同化作用和异化作用的标度指数，b，会导致鱼类在温度升高 1°C 的情况下甚至可能缩小 98%的预测。这种不现实的结果表明，当前的 W 不太可能用 Gill-Oxygen Limitation Theory（GOLT）来解释，因此，GOLT 不能作为模型对温暖世界中鱼类大小预测的机械基础。
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