Department of Environmental Science, Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Radboud University, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands.
Nat Commun. 2021 Mar 15;12(1):1701. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-21655-w.
Climate change poses a significant threat to global biodiversity, but freshwater fishes have been largely ignored in climate change assessments. Here, we assess threats of future flow and water temperature extremes to ~11,500 riverine fish species. In a 3.2 °C warmer world (no further emission cuts after current governments' pledges for 2030), 36% of the species have over half of their present-day geographic range exposed to climatic extremes beyond current levels. Threats are largest in tropical and sub-arid regions and increases in maximum water temperature are more threatening than changes in flow extremes. In comparison, 9% of the species are projected to have more than half of their present-day geographic range threatened in a 2 °C warmer world, which further reduces to 4% of the species if warming is limited to 1.5 °C. Our results highlight the need to intensify (inter)national commitments to limit global warming if freshwater biodiversity is to be safeguarded.
气候变化对全球生物多样性构成重大威胁,但气候变化评估在很大程度上忽略了淡水鱼类。在这里,我们评估了未来水流和水温极值对约 11500 种洄游鱼类物种的威胁。在一个升温 3.2°C 的世界里(在各国政府 2030 年的承诺之后不再进一步减排),超过一半的物种目前地理分布的 36%暴露在超出当前水平的气候极端之外。在热带和亚干旱地区,威胁最大,最高水温的增加比水流极值的变化更具威胁性。相比之下,预计在升温 2°C 的世界中,有 9%的物种超过一半的现有地理分布范围受到威胁,如果将变暖限制在 1.5°C,这一比例将进一步降至 4%。我们的研究结果强调,如果要保护淡水生物多样性,就需要加强(国际)限制全球变暖的承诺。