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全球变暖对世界淡水鱼类的威胁。

Threats of global warming to the world's freshwater fishes.

机构信息

Department of Environmental Science, Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Radboud University, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands.

出版信息

Nat Commun. 2021 Mar 15;12(1):1701. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-21655-w.

Abstract

Climate change poses a significant threat to global biodiversity, but freshwater fishes have been largely ignored in climate change assessments. Here, we assess threats of future flow and water temperature extremes to ~11,500 riverine fish species. In a 3.2 °C warmer world (no further emission cuts after current governments' pledges for 2030), 36% of the species have over half of their present-day geographic range exposed to climatic extremes beyond current levels. Threats are largest in tropical and sub-arid regions and increases in maximum water temperature are more threatening than changes in flow extremes. In comparison, 9% of the species are projected to have more than half of their present-day geographic range threatened in a 2 °C warmer world, which further reduces to 4% of the species if warming is limited to 1.5 °C. Our results highlight the need to intensify (inter)national commitments to limit global warming if freshwater biodiversity is to be safeguarded.

摘要

气候变化对全球生物多样性构成重大威胁,但气候变化评估在很大程度上忽略了淡水鱼类。在这里,我们评估了未来水流和水温极值对约 11500 种洄游鱼类物种的威胁。在一个升温 3.2°C 的世界里(在各国政府 2030 年的承诺之后不再进一步减排),超过一半的物种目前地理分布的 36%暴露在超出当前水平的气候极端之外。在热带和亚干旱地区,威胁最大,最高水温的增加比水流极值的变化更具威胁性。相比之下,预计在升温 2°C 的世界中,有 9%的物种超过一半的现有地理分布范围受到威胁,如果将变暖限制在 1.5°C,这一比例将进一步降至 4%。我们的研究结果强调,如果要保护淡水生物多样性,就需要加强(国际)限制全球变暖的承诺。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a8e4/7960982/09be10e9cd58/41467_2021_21655_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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