Fortini Lucas B, Kaiser Lauren R, Vorsino Adam E, Paxton Eben H, Jacobi James D
Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center US Geological Survey Honolulu HI USA.
Pacific Islands Climate Change Cooperative Honolulu HI USA.
Ecol Evol. 2017 Sep 27;7(21):9119-9130. doi: 10.1002/ece3.3451. eCollection 2017 Nov.
Hawaiian forest birds are imperiled, with fewer than half the original >40 species remaining extant. Recent studies document ongoing rapid population decline and project complete climate-based range losses for the critically endangered Kaua'i endemics 'akeke'e () and 'akikiki () by end-of-century due to projected warming. Climate change facilitates the upward expansion of avian malaria into native high elevation forests where disease was historically absent. While intensified conservation efforts attempt to safeguard these species and their habitats, the magnitude of potential loss and the urgency of this situation require all conservation options to be seriously considered. One option for Kaua'i endemics is translocation to islands with higher elevation habitats. We explored the feasibility of interisland translocation by projecting baseline and future climate-based ranges of 'akeke'e and 'akikiki across the Hawaiian archipelago. For islands where compatible climates for these species were projected to endure through end-of-century, an additional climatic niche overlap analysis compares the spatial overlap between Kaua'i endemics and current native species on prospective destination islands. Suitable climate-based ranges exist on Maui and Hawai'i for these Kaua'i endemics that offer climatically distinct areas compared to niche distributions of destination island endemics. While we recognize that any decision to translocate birds will include assessing numerous additional social, political, and biological factors, our focus on locations of enduring and ecologically compatible climate-based ranges represents the first step to evaluate this potential conservation option. Our approach considering baseline and future distributions of species with climatic niche overlap metrics to identify undesirable range overlap provides a method that can be utilized for other climate-vulnerable species with disjointed compatible environments beyond their native range.
夏威夷森林鸟类面临濒危困境，现存的鸟类不足原来40多种的一半。最近的研究表明，其数量正在持续快速下降，预计到本世纪末，由于气候变暖，极度濒危的考艾岛特有物种阿卡卡埃雀（akeke'e）和阿基基基雀（akikiki）将因气候原因完全丧失栖息地。气候变化促使禽疟向上扩展到原本没有这种疾病的原生高海拔森林。尽管加大了保护力度以保护这些物种及其栖息地，但潜在损失的规模和形势的紧迫性要求认真考虑所有保护方案。考艾岛特有物种的一个选择是转移到海拔较高栖息地的岛屿。我们通过预测阿卡卡埃雀和阿基基基雀在夏威夷群岛的基线和未来基于气候的分布范围，探讨了岛屿间转移的可行性。对于预计到本世纪末这些物种适宜气候范围仍将存在的岛屿，我们还进行了额外的气候生态位重叠分析，比较了考艾岛特有物种与潜在目的地岛屿上现有本地物种的空间重叠情况。毛伊岛和夏威夷岛存在适合这些考艾岛特有物种的基于气候的范围，与目的地岛屿特有物种的生态位分布相比，这些区域的气候截然不同。虽然我们认识到任何鸟类转移的决定都将包括评估众多其他社会、政治和生物学因素，但我们对持久且生态相容的基于气候范围地点的关注是评估这一潜在保护方案的第一步。我们考虑物种基线和未来分布以及气候生态位重叠指标以识别不良范围重叠的方法，为其他在原生范围之外具有不连续相容环境的气候脆弱物种提供了一种可利用的方法。
