Rosanowski S M, Chang Y M, Stirk A J, Verheyen K L P
Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics and Public Health Group, Department of Pathobiology and Population Sciences, The Royal Veterinary College, University of London, North Mymms, Hatfield, Hertfordshire AL9 7TA, United Kingdom; Department of Infectious Diseases and Public Health, College of Veterinary Medicine and Life Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.
Research Office, The Royal Veterinary College, University of London, London, NW1 0TU, United Kingdom.
Prev Vet Med. 2017 Dec 1;148:58-65. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2017.10.003. Epub 2017 Oct 13.
The incidence of race-day injuries in Great Britain (GB) is higher on all-weather (AW) surfaces than on turf. However, to date no studies have focused on identifying risk factors for injury specific to AW racing. Therefore, the objective of the current study was to determine risk factors for fatality, distal limb fracture (DLF) and episodes of epistaxis in flat racing Thoroughbreds racing on AW surfaces in GB. Data included all flat racing starts on AW surfaces (n=258,193) and race-day veterinary events recorded between 2000 and 2013. Information on additional course-level variables was gathered during face-to-face interviews with racecourse clerks. Horse-, race- and course-level risk factors for each outcome were assessed using mixed-effects multivariable logistic regression including horse as a random effect. A classification tree method was used to identify potential interaction terms for inclusion in the models. During the study period, there were 233 fatalities resulting in a fatality incidence of 0.90 per 1000 starts; 245 DLF with a resultant DLF incidence of 0.95 per 1000 starts and 410 episodes of epistaxis resulting in an epistaxis incidence of 1.59 per 1000 starts. Risk factors varied for each outcome, although some factors were similar across models including the going, racing intensity, horse age, age at first race start, horse and trainer performance variables. Generally, older horses and those that had started racing at an older age were at higher risk of an adverse outcome, albeit with an interaction between the two variables in the fatality model. Faster going increased the odds of epistaxis and DLF but not fatality. Increasing race distance increased the odds of fatality but reduced the odds of epistaxis. Epistaxis was associated with type of AW surface (Fibresand versus Polytrack), but DLF and fatality were not. This study provides further evidence of the association between the risk of race-day injuries and fatalities and current age, age at first start, race distance, going and horse performance. These findings provide the racing industry with information to develop strategies to reduce the occurrence of race-day events on AW surfaces.
在英国，全天候赛道上的赛马日受伤发生率高于草地赛道。然而，迄今为止，尚无研究专注于确定全天候赛马特有的受伤风险因素。因此，本研究的目的是确定在英国全天候赛道上进行平地赛马的纯种马发生死亡、远端肢体骨折（DLF）和鼻出血事件的风险因素。数据包括在全天候赛道上的所有平地赛马起跑（n = 258,193）以及2000年至2013年期间记录的赛马日兽医事件。在与赛道工作人员的面对面访谈中收集了有关其他赛道层面变量的信息。使用混合效应多变量逻辑回归评估每个结果的马匹、比赛和赛道层面的风险因素，将马匹作为随机效应。采用分类树方法确定纳入模型的潜在交互项。在研究期间，有233例死亡，导致每1000次起跑的死亡率为0.90；245例远端肢体骨折，导致每1000次起跑的远端肢体骨折发生率为0.95，以及410例鼻出血事件，导致每1000次起跑的鼻出血发生率为1.59。每个结果的风险因素各不相同，尽管有些因素在不同模型中相似，包括赛道状况、比赛强度、马匹年龄、首次参赛年龄、马匹和训练师的表现变量。一般来说，年龄较大的马匹以及那些在较大年龄开始参赛的马匹出现不良结果的风险更高，尽管在死亡模型中这两个变量之间存在交互作用。更快的赛道状况增加了鼻出血和远端肢体骨折的几率，但没有增加死亡几率。增加比赛距离增加了死亡几率，但降低了鼻出血几率。鼻出血与全天候赛道表面类型（纤维沙地与多道）有关，但远端肢体骨折和死亡与赛道表面类型无关。本研究进一步证明了赛马日受伤和死亡风险与当前年龄、首次参赛年龄、比赛距离、赛道状况和马匹表现之间的关联。这些发现为赛马行业提供了信息，以制定策略减少全天候赛道上赛马日事件的发生。
