Perera E L Sunethra J
Department of Demography,University of Colombo,Sri Lanka.
J Biosoc Sci. 2017 Nov;49(S1):S116-S130. doi: 10.1017/S0021932017000384.
This paper examines the fertility transition and its recent dynamics in Sri Lanka using data from Demographic and Health Surveys and Population Censuses. Fertility trends and patterns were analysed for two periods: 1953-2000 and 2000-2012. The findings revealed that Sri Lanka's fertility transition has been relatively rapid and has taken place over a period of about four decades to reach replacement level. Social and health-related factors, including decline in maternal and infant mortality, increase in women's education, changes in institutions, reproductive values and behaviour, and increased contraceptive use all contributed to bringing down the fertility level by 2000. However, in the 2006/07 Sri Lankan DHS and 2012 Population Census, a slight increase in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) to 2.3 and 2.4, respectively, was observed. Binary logistic regression estimates based on 2006/2007 DHS data were used to identify the significant predictors of fertility preferences of ever-married women. The analysis of factors affecting the likelihood of having a larger family (more than 2 children) revealed that lower educated women were more likely to have a higher number of children than their counterparts with a higher level of education. Women who lived in rural and estate (commercial area of 20 acres or more employing 10 or more labourers) sectors were 1.4 and 1.2 times, respectively, more likely to prefer more children compared with urban women. In terms of ethnic groups, Moor and Tamil women were 4.5 and 1.4 times, respectively, more likely to prefer more children than Sinhalese women. When the economic status of women was considered, the poorer women were 1.4 times more likely to desire a higher number of children compared with rich women, while women in the middle wealth quintile were 1.2 times more likely to desire more children. The findings suggest that the Sri Lankan government should re-visit population and reproductive health policy and family planning programmes to see how it can better manage fertility among the different population groups in Sri Lanka.
本文利用人口与健康调查及人口普查数据，研究了斯里兰卡的生育转变及其近期动态。分析了1953 - 2000年和2000 - 2012年两个时期的生育趋势和模式。研究结果显示，斯里兰卡的生育转变相对迅速，在大约四十年的时间里达到了更替水平。社会和健康相关因素，包括孕产妇和婴儿死亡率的下降、妇女教育水平的提高、机构、生育价值观和行为的变化以及避孕药具使用的增加，都促使到2000年生育率水平下降。然而，在2006/07年斯里兰卡人口与健康调查以及2012年人口普查中，观察到总生育率分别略有上升至2.3和2.4。基于2006/2007年人口与健康调查数据的二元逻辑回归估计，用于确定曾婚妇女生育偏好的显著预测因素。对影响生育更多子女（超过2个孩子）可能性的因素分析表明，受教育程度较低的妇女比受教育程度较高的同龄人更有可能生育更多子女。与城市妇女相比，生活在农村和种植园（20英亩或以上的商业区，雇佣10名或更多工人）地区的妇女分别有1.4倍和1.2倍更倾向于生育更多子女。在种族群体方面，摩尔族和泰米尔族妇女比僧伽罗族妇女分别有4.5倍和1.4倍更倾向于生育更多子女。考虑到妇女的经济状况，贫困妇女比富裕妇女生育更多子女的可能性高1.4倍，而处于中等财富五分位数的妇女生育更多子女的可能性高1.2倍。研究结果表明，斯里兰卡政府应重新审视人口与生殖健康政策及计划生育方案，以了解如何更好地管理斯里兰卡不同人群的生育情况。
