Department of Management, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.
School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University, Loughborough, Leicestershire, UK.
Risk Anal. 2019 Jan;39(1):257-273. doi: 10.1111/risa.12942. Epub 2017 Dec 11.
Quantitative risk analysis is being extensively employed to support policymakers and provides a strong conceptual framework for evaluating decision alternatives under uncertainty. Many problems involving environmental risks are, however, of a spatial nature, i.e., containing spatial impacts, spatial vulnerabilities, and spatial risk-mitigation alternatives. Recent developments in multicriteria spatial analysis have enabled the assessment and aggregation of multiple impacts, supporting policymakers in spatial evaluation problems. However, recent attempts to conduct spatial multicriteria risk analysis have generally been weakly conceptualized, without adequate roots in quantitative risk analysis. Moreover, assessments of spatial risk often neglect the multidimensional nature of spatial impacts (e.g., social, economic, human) that are typically occurring in such decision problems. The aim of this article is therefore to suggest a conceptual quantitative framework for environmental multicriteria spatial risk analysis based on expected multi-attribute utility theory. The framework proposes: (i) the formal assessment of multiple spatial impacts; (ii) the aggregation of these multiple spatial impacts; (iii) the assessment of spatial vulnerabilities and probabilities of occurrence of adverse events; (iv) the computation of spatial risks; (v) the assessment of spatial risk mitigation alternatives; and (vi) the design and comparison of spatial risk mitigation alternatives (e.g., reductions of vulnerabilities and/or impacts). We illustrate the use of the framework in practice with a case study based on a flood-prone area in northern Italy.
定量风险分析被广泛应用于支持政策制定者，并为在不确定性下评估决策替代方案提供了一个强有力的概念框架。然而，许多涉及环境风险的问题具有空间性质，即包含空间影响、空间脆弱性和空间风险缓解替代方案。多准则空间分析的最新发展使得对多个影响的评估和聚合成为可能，从而为政策制定者在空间评估问题中提供支持。然而，最近进行空间多准则风险分析的尝试通常概念化程度较弱，在定量风险分析中没有充分的基础。此外，空间风险评估往往忽略了空间影响的多维性质（例如，社会、经济、人类），这些影响通常在这种决策问题中发生。因此，本文旨在基于预期多属性效用理论，为环境多准则空间风险分析提出一个概念性的定量框架。该框架提出：（i）对多个空间影响进行正式评估；（ii）对这些多个空间影响进行聚合；（iii）对空间脆弱性和不利事件发生概率进行评估；（iv）计算空间风险；（v）评估空间风险缓解替代方案；以及（vi）设计和比较空间风险缓解替代方案（例如，降低脆弱性和/或影响）。我们通过一个基于意大利北部洪水多发地区的案例研究来说明该框架在实践中的应用。
