Northwestern University.
Br J Sociol. 2019 Jan;70(1):306-338. doi: 10.1111/1468-4446.12340. Epub 2017 Dec 19.
In this paper, we develop a set-theoretic and possible worlds approach to counterfactual analysis in case-study explanation. Using this approach, we first consider four kinds of counterfactuals: necessary condition counterfactuals, SUIN condition counterfactuals, sufficient condition counterfactuals, and INUS condition counterfactuals. We explore the distinctive causal claims entailed in each, and conclude that necessary condition and SUIN condition counterfactuals are the most useful types for hypothesis assessment in case-study research. We then turn attention to the development of a rigorous understanding of the 'minimal-rewrite' rule, linking this rule to insights from set theory about the relative importance of necessary conditions. We show why, logically speaking, a comparative analysis of two necessary condition counterfactuals will tend to favour small events and contingent happenings. A third section then presents new tools for specifying the level of generality of the events in a counterfactual. We show why and how the goals of formulating empirically important versus empirically plausible counterfactuals stand in tension with one another. Finally, we use our framework to link counterfactual analysis to causal sequences, which in turn provides advantages for conducting counterfactual projections.
在本文中，我们针对案例研究解释中的反事实分析开发了一种集合论和可能世界的方法。使用这种方法，我们首先考虑了四种反事实：必要条件反事实、SUIN 条件反事实、充分条件反事实和 INUS 条件反事实。我们探讨了每一种反事实所涉及的独特因果主张，并得出结论，必要条件和 SUIN 条件反事实是案例研究中假设评估最有用的类型。然后，我们将注意力转向对“最小重写”规则的严格理解的发展，将该规则与集合论中关于必要条件相对重要性的见解联系起来。我们解释了为什么从逻辑上讲，对两个必要条件反事实的比较分析往往倾向于支持小事件和偶然事件。第三部分然后提出了指定反事实中事件的一般程度的新工具。我们解释了为什么以及如何制定经验上重要的反事实与经验上合理的反事实之间存在紧张关系。最后，我们使用我们的框架将反事实分析与因果序列联系起来，这反过来又为进行反事实预测提供了优势。
