Delimiting Strategic Zones for the Development of Fall Armyworm (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) on Corn in the State of Florida.

The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), cannot survive prolonged periods of freezing temperatures, thereby limiting where it can overwinter in North America. Climate change is anticipated to reduce the frequency of freeze days in Florida over the decades, with the potential consequence of a significant expansion of the overwintering range, whose northern limit in North America was assessed between 27 and 28°N in the last century. To assess this possibility, the development of the fall armyworm on corn leaves, one of the main host plants in the United States, was determined at five constant temperatures ranging from 14 to 30°C. Based on the development time, the thermal constant and the lower threshold temperature were used to estimate the number of generations of fall armyworm at 42 locations in the state of Florida, from 2006 to 2016. Maps were constructed to provide a visual description of the interpolated data, using GIS (Geographic Information System). The highest number of generations was observed in the counties farther south, an area that showed the highest temperatures during the years and plays a strategic role in maintaining fall armyworm populations in corn fields. Additionally, we conclude that in the absence of freeze periods, the northern limit for fall armyworm overwintering should be between 28 and 29°N.