Wang D Z, Zhang H, Xu Z L, Song G D, Zhang Y, Shen C F, Zhang S, Xue X D, Wang C, Jiang G H
Tianjin Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention, Tianjin 300011, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2017 Dec 10;38(12):1672-1676. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2017.12.018.
To explore the trends and distribution of premature mortality caused by four main non-communicable diseases (NCDs) including cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, cancer, chronic respiratory disease and diabetes in different sex and residential areas in Tianjin so as to provide basis for setting up prevention and control programs on premature mortality. Population data on premature mortality in 1999-2015 were from the 'Tianjin population based mortality surveillance system' maintained by Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Data related to permanent residents was from the Tianjin Municipal Public Security Bureau. Standardized premature mortality rates were calculated and adjusted for age and gender according to the '2000 world standard population'. Premature mortality probabilities were analyzed according to the methods recommended by WHO. Joinpoint regression and Cochran-Armitage trend methods were used to determine the significance of differences on the trends of mortality. From 1999 to 2015, the premature mortality appeared consistent (<0.001) declining in the above-said four diseases with the APC of probabilities as-2.92%, -1.13%, -9.51% and -3.39%, respectively. The probabilities of premature mortality were all declining consistently in both men and women and in both urban and rural areas in Tianjin. From 1999 to 2015, the probabilities of the four main NCDs were between 19.67% and 12.85% (APC=-2.49%, <0.001), higher in women (from 17.02% to 9.17%, APC=-3.84%, <0.001) than that in men (from 22.27% to 16.47%, APC=-1.59%, <0.001), in urban (from 21.04% to 12.34%, APC=-3.26%, <0.001) than that in rural areas (from 17.80% to 13.54%, APC=-1.54%, <0.001). Our findings suggested that premature mortality in Tianjin was decreasing during 1999-2015 but attention should still be called for on males and people living in the rural areas to further reducing the premature mortality.
为探讨天津市不同性别和居住地区心血管病、癌症、慢性呼吸道疾病和糖尿病这四种主要非传染性疾病（NCDs）所致过早死亡的趋势和分布情况，为制定过早死亡防控方案提供依据。1999 - 2015年过早死亡的人口数据来自天津市疾病预防控制中心（CDC）维护的“天津市人群死因监测系统”。常住人口数据来自天津市公安局。根据“2000年世界标准人口”计算标准化过早死亡率，并按年龄和性别进行调整。按照世界卫生组织推荐的方法分析过早死亡概率。采用Joinpoint回归和Cochran - Armitage趋势方法确定死亡率趋势差异的显著性。1999年至2015年，上述四种疾病的过早死亡率呈一致下降趋势（<0.001），概率的年度百分比变化（APC）分别为-2.92%、-1.13%、-9.51%和-3.39%。天津市男性和女性、城市和农村地区的过早死亡概率均持续下降。1999年至2015年，四种主要非传染性疾病的概率在19.67%至12.85%之间（APC = -2.49%，<0.001），女性（从17.02%降至9.17%，APC = -3.84%，<0.001）高于男性（从22.27%降至16.47%，APC = -1.59%，<0.001），城市（从21.04%降至12.34%，APC = -3.26%，<0.001）高于农村地区（从17.80%降至13.54%，APC = -1.54%，<0.001）。我们的研究结果表明，1999 - 2015年天津市过早死亡率在下降，但仍应关注男性和农村地区居民，以进一步降低过早死亡率。
