Jia Xiaoyue, Du Peiling, Wu Kusheng, Xu Zhenxi, Fang Jiaying, Xu Xiaoling, Lin Kun
From the Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, Guangdong, China.
Pancreas. 2018 Feb;47(2):233-237. doi: 10.1097/MPA.0000000000000976.
During the last decade, the mortality rate of pancreatic cancer in China has significantly increased. We analyzed data for the period 1991-2014 to investigate the distribution of mortality rates and predict trends for the next 5 years.
We obtained the pancreatic mortality data from the Chinese cancer annual report. Trend surface analysis was applied to study the geographical distribution. We used curve estimation, time series, grey box modeling, and joinpoint regression to predict the mortality rate.
Standardized pancreatic cancer mortality rate increased during 1991-2014 and might peak in the ensuing 5 years in China. The mortality rate was higher among elderly people and in urban and northeast/eastern areas than among young people and in rural and middle/western areas.
Pancreatic cancer mortality shows an increasing trend, which is related to the socioeconomic development of China and the ageing of the population. Prevention strategies should be aimed at urban men 45 years or older, especially those residing in higher-mortality rate areas.
在过去十年间，中国胰腺癌死亡率显著上升。我们分析了1991 - 2014年期间的数据，以调查死亡率分布情况并预测未来5年的趋势。
我们从中国癌症年报中获取胰腺癌死亡率数据。应用趋势面分析研究地理分布。我们使用曲线估计、时间序列、灰箱建模和连接点回归来预测死亡率。
1991 - 2014年期间标准化胰腺癌死亡率上升，且未来5年可能在中国达到峰值。老年人以及城市和东北/东部地区的死亡率高于年轻人以及农村和中西部地区。
胰腺癌死亡率呈上升趋势，这与中国的社会经济发展和人口老龄化有关。预防策略应针对45岁及以上的城市男性，尤其是居住在高死亡率地区的人群。
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